Divisional Playoff Odds: 49ers Heavily Favored at Home vs. Packers

Pack up and head to Santa Clara as the underdogs

Pack be nimble. Pack be quick. The Green Bay Packers are going to a playoff game in…not Candlestick. The San Francisco 49ers will host the Packers at Blue Jean Baby stadium for the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Mommas, don’t let your babies grow up to be Dallas Cowboys. After opening as the 7-point underdogs, the Packers went into the stadium owned by the man who failed to buy the San Diego Chargers in 1966 and absolutely cleaned house. The final score of 48 to 32 does not tell the complete story. At the start of the 4th quarter, the Packers had the lead at 41 to 16. They also had the ball. ESPN’s Win Probability model had the Packers at 99.9% chance to win the game and regardless of Dallas’ attempts to come back, the chart never wavered until it ticked to 100% at the final whistle.

Mamas, don’t let your babies grow up to be Cowboys
‘Cause they’ll always lose at home and they’re always alone
Even with the Packers and Jordan Love

Paraphrasing of Waylon Jennings aside, the Packers were rewarded with a trip to the Divisional round where, according to DraftKings, they open as 10-point underdogs to the 49ers.

In 2014, the team left the stadium where Jerry Rice fumbled in the 1998 Wild Card Round. They moved into a new home named for the inventors of the Canadian Tuxedo. Since setting up shop in Santa Clara (which is decidedly NOT San Francisco), the 49ers are undefeated through 4 postseason games played at home.

The Packers have shown improvement on defense week after week, and Jordan Love has been on an absolute HEATER for the last two months. However, the 49ers absolutely earned their top seed and bye week. They are the number one team in the NFC by weighted DVOA (with the Packers being 2nd in the NFC after last night’s route of Mike McCarthy’s team).

The money line has been set for the Packers at +360. This has an implied win percentage right around ~22%. The over/under is 50, so oddsmakers expect quite the show.