Survey results!!
Commanders fans were overwhelmingly pleased with the results of Adam Peters’ first-ever draft in Washington, with 97% of respondents in this week’s Reacts survey here on Hogs Haven declaring that the burgundy & gold were ‘winners’ in the draft.
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Only 4 fanbases polled this week were more positive about their teams’ results than Washington fans. Fans of the Chicago Bears — the only team to pick ahead of Washington in the draft — tallied 99%, while fans of the Chiefs, Rams, and Steelers weighed in at 98% each.
Inside the NFC East, Giants fans gave their front office a more lukewarm grade, with 85% voting for the ‘winners’ tag, while Cowboys fans were the 4th lowest among polled fanbases, with 73% giving the up-vote to Jerruh and Stephun Jones. The Eagles fanbase was not polled in this survey.
Which fanbase returned the most negative result? That would be the Atlanta Falcons at 49% (Jags and Browns fans were the only others to poll below 70%).
Washington’s pick at No. 36 overall, defensive tackle Johnny Newton, has probably drawn the most praise from pundits and fans in terms of value and ‘textbook’ drafting. Newton was generally seen as a first-round defensive talent who got pushed out of the initial round by the rush on quarterbacks (6) and offensive linemen (9). Overall, 23 of the 32 picks on Thursday night were on the offensive side of the ball, leaving a lot of defensive talent available as the draft resumed on Friday. So, despite the fact that Washington has two of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL, Adam Peters grabbed Newton, whom Peters said was clearly the best player available on the team’s board at the time.
Drafting for value over need is a sound draft strategy, but it often leaves fans frustrated, and for a very understandable reason — if a roster hole goes unfilled near the top of the draft, the team has few options for filling it ahead of the season.
The Washington Commanders, as everyone knows, are weak at the offensive tackle position, with question marks on both the right and left sides. The expectation had been that at least one of those questions would have been resoundingly answered in free agency, the draft, or both.
Instead, during free agency, the only move made by Washington’s front office was to re-sign veteran swing tackle Cornelius Lucas. Most Commanders fans actually like Lucas as a swing tackle, but few see him as a strong option as a starter on either side of the line. In addition, by the end of the 2023 season, few Washington fans had any desire to see Andrew Wylie line up at right tackle again, though there was some grudging acceptance of the idea that he might be trusted to fill a role at guard. At the end of the free agency period, Wylie appeared to (still) be penciled in at right tackle, with few other options other than swapping him and Sam Cosmi.
By the end of the draft, the Commanders had selected a tackle — TCU’s Brandon Coleman. Pre-draft analysis had mostly projected Coleman as a guard in the NFL, but it’s clear that the Commanders drafted him as a tackle and expect him to be capable of playing the position as a pro. Coleman’s very high level of athleticism (he had an RAS score of 9.98) may well be an advantage in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, whatever it turns out to be. But fans came out of the draft with the feeling that the offensive tackle position is still undermanned.
The team’s efforts in free agency and the draft bolster these concerns. In March free agency, Washington’s front office pursued Michael Onwenu, who eventually signed a 3-year, $57m contract with the Patriots. In the April draft, the team tried to trade up to secure a second pick in the 1st round, but couldn’t manage to reach an agreement. It’s assumed that Peters would have drafted an offensive tackle if he’d been able to strike a deal to trade up. So the indications are there to suggest that the team’s front office has tried to get premium OTs in both free agency and the draft but was unable to do so. It leaves fans in the uncomfortable situation of having their concerns validated by the team’s actions, yet, with few options remaining this offseason for improving the position.
There are basically four available strategies:
- Sign an available free agent tackle. The primary options appear to comprise Donovan Smith, Andrus Peat, 42-year old Jason Peters, or the much-injured David Bakhtiari. Despite frequent calls for the team to sign D.J. Humphries, he is just 4 months removed from an ACL tear and is unlikely to be healthy enough to play in 2024.
- Trade for an offensive tackle
- Wait for a veteran offensive tackle to be cut, and sign him when he is. This is the strategy that Washington used with success in 2021 when the Bears drafted Teven Jenkins and subsequently cut Charles Leno.
- Go into the season with the current roster
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One-third of all voters preferred to sign a free agent. Realistically, that probably means choosing from Smith, Peat and Bakhtiari.
I find myself in a small minority of just 9% who voted to trade for a veteran tackle. Washington apparently tried to trade up in the draft. Some fans have suggested that a trade target could have been the Steelers, who used the 20th overall pick to select Troy Fautanu. That likely means that 3-year starter Dan Moore Jr., who is in the final year of his rookie contract, will be relegated to backup duties in Pittsburgh. If I were in Adam Peters’ shoes, I would target a player like Moore, and try to trade for him. I understand the desire to preserve draft capital, but trading for a tackle would allow Washington to select their preferred player from a wider pool of candidates (with a greater degree of control over who they consider). It would also improve the team and help protect our freshly-drafted rookie quarterback. And, of course, it represents an investment, not an expense. Trading a future draft pick still gets us a player, and it gets him here now, when we need him, which could make the difference between a competent 2024 offense and one that is hard to watch. If Peters was willing to trade a draft pick to move up to draft an unproven rookie, why not trade a draft pick to secure a proven veteran?
The final option in our survey — to do nothing — was equally unpopular. Only 9% of fans who voted this week felt like the combination of Lucas, Wylie, Coleman, et al. represents the best way forward. This could, of course, become the default option for the front office if they simply don’t do anything else.
Regardless of what Adam Peters and Lance Newmark eventually decide to do, the roster is nearly complete. In fact, based on this past week’s draft picks, and team announcements, the Commanders have contracts or agreements with 94 players, which puts them 3 players over the 91-man roster limit. Three guys will have to be released or moved to a reserve list (e.g., injured reserve) before all of the draft picks and undrafted free agents can be signed. With rookie minicamp scheduled to run May 10-12, I imagine the Commanders front office will wait until they’ve seen the tryout players, and then announce any remaining roster move all at once to bring the tally to the league limit, so stay tuned for roster announcements next weekend.
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