The 49ers ended up paying around $8 million more for an All-Pro who took their offense to historic levels
In a strategic move that showcased the San Francisco 49ers‘ foresight, head coach Kyle Shanahan seized the opportunity in October 2022 to bolster his offense with one of the NFL’s most unique weapons, all without jeopardizing the franchise’s future.
“A running back?” “For $12 million a year?!” “You can get them anywhere!” The discourse surrounding running backs has tanked their value because the only way we view players and their value is based on their contract.
Christian McCaffrey’s impact was felt in the 14 games he played for the 49ers in 2022. Remarkably, San Francisco only had to pay $690,000 for his services that season, a bargain considering the value he brought to the team. This was in exchange for a 2023 second, third, and fourth-rounder and a 2024 fifth-round pick.
Carolina traded each of the 2023 picks in some capacity. What matters is the 49ers paying an All-Pro “eligible” $11.8 million in 2024 or the 61st, 93rd, 132nd, and 166th picks in the draft, roughly $4 million.
Here’s the player selected with the 49ers original pick in each round:
Round 2, 2023: TE Brenton Strange
Round 3, 2023: TE Darnell Washington
Round 4, 2024: Edge rusher Nick Herbig
Round 5, 2024: RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Herbig with Kris Kocurek would be a match made in heaven. You know what else is? The player who added a touchdown to Shanahan’s offense.
In 2022, the 49ers averaged more than nine points and three more first downs with McCaffrey. Their third-down percentage jumped seven points. They were 10-1 compared to 3-3. That loss came less than 72 hours after McCaffrey had been traded against Patrick Mahomes.
Shanahan had an entire offseason to craft an offense around McCaffrey’s skill set. The 49ers finished first offensively in:
Overall expected points added
Overall success rate
Dropback EPA
Dropback success rate
Rushing EPA
Rushing success rate
DVOA (Schedule-adjusted efficiency)
Red zone scoring percentage
Points per play
In a game where the objective is to score as many points as possible, McCaffrey was the focal point of an offense in rare air in 2023. The 49ers elected to go quality over quantity in an attempt to make a Super Bowl run for about $7.8 million more this upcoming season.
In a day and age where “running backs don’t matter,” McCaffrey won the Offensive Player of the Year award and finished third in the MVP voting. Strange and Washington finished this past season with a combined 96 receiving yards, but McCaffrey surpassed that number by Week 4.
Shanahan raves about McCaffrey, and rightfully so. This past January, Kyle said, “He’s had the best year as an offensive player that I’ve been a part of.”
It sounds hyperbolic to say, “The 49ers won the trade because they added a player who scores a touchdown a game.” That’s what happened.
Shanahan seemed more in awe by how McCaffrey prepared himself and how well he performed in different roles: “Christian has been amazing in every facet we’ve asked him. I mean, when we throw him the ball, when we hand off the ball, when we give it to other people, and he’s got to block or just carry out being a distraction or a decoy, he’s amazing.”
There were no guarantees that McCaffrey would stay healthy. That was one of the biggest criticisms at the time of the trade. Durability is another area that’s impressed Shanahan: “The durability he’s had, how hard he goes, how hard he practices, how hard he prepares, which started way before the season started, really just after last season ended. Just the consistency, physically and mentally, of what he does is second to none.”
McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing and had the most carries of 10+ and 15+ yards. He took the 49ers offense to levels we’ve never seen under Shanahan. The 49ers have two more seasons of McCaffrey before his contract voids in 2026.
Four years of an All-Pro “eligible” or four draft picks? The only decision you need to make is what pen you’re signing with.
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