BrisVegas Systems DraftBot 4.0 Washington Commanders 2024 Mock Draft

A new era of mocking the draft dawns on the nation’s capital

When last we heard from the DraftBot, it had successfully navigated an existential crisis which occurred when it’s next generation bio-cybernetic processor achieved self-awareness, around midseason, and was confronted with the realization that the Commanders’ former meddling owner had moved on, taking with him it’s entire reason for being.

I am pleased to inform Hogs Haven readers that, following its successful redraft of the Rivera era (Pt 1, Pt 2), it is back with a renewed sense of purpose, to find Washington’s new regime the players it needs to revive the Redskins’ winning tradition.

While it had been child’s play to draft better players than Dan Snyder and his beleaguered front offices, it doubts it can do better than Washington’s new draft team, without access to a real NFL scouting department. Adam Peters’ scouting operation in San Francisco averaged more than one elite player per draft since 2017, a record of success that few NFL teams can match.

DraftBot 4.0 has learned a great deal from studying Peters’ previous drafts, as detailed in the first of the redraft articles. It views the primary purpose of the draft as raising the team’s talent ceiling, rather than fixing holes, which are better addressed in free agency. It seeks to continually add the best available talent to the roster, to maintain and build the team’s competitive edge.

The DraftBot’s approach to identifying the Best Player Available has been updated, and is more sophisticated than simply taking the player at the top of its scouts’ board at each pick. It applies a principle it gleaned from Peters’ former director of scouting involving stacking the ranked prospects against the team’s own roster to determine which player provides the greatest potential impact in years to come.

This approach effectively resolves the perennial “need vs best player available” debate. In the early rounds, the best player available can just as easily be one who addresses a roster vacancy, or one who provides an upgrade over a just adequate starter. After the first 80 picks, first year starters become so rare that it becomes pointless to focus on addressing needs for the coming season.

The DraftBot also factors position value into identifying the Best Player Available. This involves a combination of position impact and replacement cost.

Since the DraftBot achieved self-awareness, it has also started experimenting with new ways of thinking, such as risk taking, as we will see shortly. But before we get to the DraftBot’s 2024 mock draft, let’s see how the previous version did in last year’s final mock draft, in which it traded pick #97 to the 49ers to gain two more picks.

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2023 Final Mock Draft Recap

Round 1, Pick 16: RB Bijan Robinson

Actual Pick: 8 Falcons

16 Starts, 1,463 yards from scrimmage, 8 TD, 8^th place in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting

The DraftBot generally avoids offensive skill positions in the top 20 picks, but made an exception based on the comps to Marshall Faulk. Robinson was one of only 22 rookie RBs to gain more than 1,462 yards from scrimmage since Faulk logged 1,804 yards in 1994. While maybe not a generational talent, Bijan is the kind of elite playmaker that doesn’t come along in every draft.

Round 2, Pick 47: G Cody Mauch

Actual Pick: 48 Buccaneers

17 starts, 57 pressures allowed, PFF run block grade 37.6

Mauch was a popular choice in mock drafts on Hogs Haven. He started 19 games for the Bucs, including two playoff appearances. According to PFF, he was the worst starting guard in the regular season. Perhaps he will improve this year.

Round 3, Pick 99 (from 49ers): S Quan Martin

Actual Pick: 47 Commanders

5 starts, 16 games, 28 tackles, 18 assists, 15 stops, 2 INT, 4 PD, 1 pressure

Commanders Pick at 97: C Ricky Stromberg – 26 offensive snaps

The DraftBot selected Quan 52 picks later than Rivera did. He struggled initially, but flashed potential, eventually earning five starts at the end of the season. He offers promise as a depth player in Joe Whitt’s new look defense, if he can clean up his sometimes leaky coverage.

Round 4, Pick 102 (from 49ers): CB Darius Rush

Actual Pick: 138 Steelers

0 Starts, 39 defensive snaps

Rush was drafted by the Steelers and struggled to earn playing time behind starters Patrick Peterson and Joey Porter, and one of the deepest CB rooms in the league. He might have competed for a starting job on the Commanders.

Round 4, Pick 118: LB Dorian Williams

Actual Pick: 91 Bills

2 starts, 17 games, 25 tackles, 15 assists, 12 stops, 1 PD, 2 pressures

Williams was a promising depth addition to a solid Buffalo LB corps. He got significant playing time in four games and made good use of limited opportunities. Would he have been a better option than Cody Barton?

Round 5, Pick 150: C Olusegun Oluwatimi

Actual Pick: 154 Seahawks

1 start, 16 games, 129 offensive snaps, PFF Run 50.1, 1 pressure allowed

Olu got significant playing time in three games, backing up starter Evan Brown. His PFF pass blocking grade ranked 7^th among all NFL centers, while his run blocking remains a work in progress.

Round 5, Pick 155 (from San Francisco): WR Trey Palmer

Actual Pick: 191 Buccaneers

8 starts, 17 games, 39 rec, 385 yds, 3 TD; 3 rush, 22 yds

Palmer got significant playing time in all 17 games, and finished the season as the third starting WR, behind stars Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

Round 6, Pick 193: TE Josh Whyle

Actual Pick: 147 Titans

3 starts, 11 games, 9 rec, 94 yds, 1 TD, PFF blocking grade 62.0

Whyle slotted in as TE3 on the Titans depth chart and had decent production in limited playing opportunities.

Round 6, Pick 215: FB Hunter Luepke

Actual Pick: UDFA Cowboys

0 starts, 17 games, 217 special teams snaps; Rushing: 6 att, 19 yds, 1 TD, 5 1^st downs; Receiving: 3 rec, 18 yds

Luepke was the Cowboys’ first UDFA signing after the draft. He made the most of limited touches on offense, recording 1 TD and five first downs on 6 rushing attempts. He also became a core special teamer, leading the Cowboys in coverage tackles (4) and misses (5) and blocking a field goal.

Round 7, Pick 233: OT Carter Warren

Actual Pick: 120 Jets

5 starts, 8 games, 403 snaps, PFF blocking grade 46.9, 20 pressures allowed

Warren played in 8 games and started 5, filling in for injured starters. He has significant room for improvement.

In summary, the DraftBot turned the Commanders’ 8 picks into 10 selections. Three of its picks earned became first year starters (Robinson, Mauch, Palmer). Three more (Rush, Williams, Oluwatimi) would have had better chances to compete for playing time if they had been drafted by the Commanders. Sixth round pick, Hunter Luepke became a special teams stud for the Cowboys and was one of the NFL’s most successful players on a per-touch basis.

The DraftBot’s selections started a total of 57 games for their respective teams. In comparison, Ron Rivera’s draft class accumulated a total of 16 starts.

It easily outclassed Ron and the Martii. Now, let’s see if it can compete with a real GM.

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DraftBot 2024 Mock Draft

The DraftBot used the Pro Football Focus mock draft simulator set to use public boards and other teams drafting less for need than default and caring more about position value, with randomness at default level. Consensus ranks are from The Athletic’s 2024 NFL Draft consensus Big Board (16 April), up to 100, and thereafter from the Mock Draft Database 2024 Consensus Board.

Round 1, Pick 2

Trade with Minnesota

The Commanders send pick #2 to the Vikings in exchange for 2024 picks #11, 23, 108 and 2025 first and third round picks. Net trade value (Rich Hill trade value chart): +135

The DraftBot’s core program was activated by this draft scenario, with the team in desperate need of a starting QB and holding the 2^nd overall pick in a deep QB class. Its primal urge to pick a QB second overall came into conflict with a feeling of deep resentment at the diabolical task it had been given, to find early starters at QB and both OT positions in a single draft.

Faced with a nearly impossible challenge, the DraftBot decided that desperate times call for desperate measures. It took a gamble on a risky trade scenario.

The idea of trading up into the first round for an OT has been gaining popularity on Hogs Haven. The sense of desperation about the OT situation has reached a point that even avowed draft rationalists are jumping on the bandwandwagon. However, such trades go against everything the DraftBot knows about the draft. In a system governed by uncertainty, the best strategy to achieve success is to make more selections, not fewer.

Rather than seeking a trade that would reduce its chances of hitting on players, it pursued a trade option that would increase its chances. It identified three teams with two picks in a range that would allow it to pursue likely starters at QB and OT: Patriots (3, 34), Cardinals (4, 27), Minnesota (11, 23).

Knowing it was in position to stick at #2 and pick a QB it rated as an early starter allowed it to demand a premium price, well above trade chart value. It got the offer it was seeking from Minnesota, who traded up to pick the QB it would have selected if it had stayed at #2.

Vikings pick: QB Jayden Daniels, LSU

Round 1, Pick 11 (from Vikings): OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State

6-6, 324 lbs, 33 1/8” arms, RAS 9.63

2023 Stats: 12 games, 700 blocking snaps, 0 sacks, 12 pressures allowed

PFF grades: Pass block 80 (39^th in NCAA), Run block 90.9 (1^st in NCAA)

Consensus Rank: 33

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

In a surprise move, the DraftBot selects the second highest rated player on its board, rather than a QB. It had EDGE Laitu Latu rated higher, but felt its hand was forced to use the pick on one of the Commanders’ top two needs.

The DraftBot projects Fuaga as a likely day one starter, who should provide an instant upgrade over Andrew Wylie. Fuaga has elite athleticism for a huge man and grades as the best run blocker in college football. His pass protection is already good (“outstanding” according to NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein). With a few refinements to his technique, he has the potential to become a premium starter, early in his NFL career. His floor is moving inside to guard, likely at an elite level.

Speaking of Laitu Latu, let’s see how he went against the Commanders’ new OT:

Round 1, Pick 23: QB Bo Nix, Oregon

6-2, 214 lbs

2023 Passing: 14 games, 361 comp (77.3%), 4,454 yds, ADOT 6.8 yds, 45 TD, 3 INT, 6 sacks

2023 Rushing: 34 att, 256 yds, 4.7 YPA, 6 TD

QBR: 91.0 (2^nd in NCAA)

Consensus Rank: 33

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

The DraftBot went with its highest rated remaining OT with its first pick, because it estimated there was over an 80% chance that the third rated QB on its board would still be available at pick number 23.

A key consideration in the DraftBot’s QB ranking was the realization the player it picks will not have the luxury of sitting for a year behind an established starter. It rated three QBs in the draft class as NFL ready: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. (Michael Penix was eliminated over scheme fit and medical concerns.) It views J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye as high-upside developmental projects, making them poor fits for the Commanders. It was confident that other QB-needy teams would rate them higher than Nix, as it may have done if it were picking for another team.

The calculated risk paid off. The DraftBot sees evidence of elite processing in Nix’s game and believes he has potential to become a similar NFL QB to Brock Purdy. His advanced play recognition and quick processing allows him to efficiently deliver the ball to his offensive playmakers, with a quick release to his first target, or by working through progressions. He is not afraid to attack the middle of the field, which is rare for college QBs and crucial to NFL success. A concern with Nix is that Oregon’s system had him throwing the lowest Air Yards per Attempt of any QB rated in the first round since 2020. However, that didn’t stop him from being the second-most efficient passer of the top-6 prospects, with an EPA/dropback of 0.52 (#1 Jayden Daniels 10.1 yds).

Nix also has good pocket awareness to avoid negative plays. His Pressure to Sack rate of 7.9% puts him well ahead of the other top prospects except Penix (7.7%).

Fitting Nix into Kliff Kingsbury’s offense could pose some challenges. While Nix was not asked to throw deep often in Oregon’s offense, when he did, he demonstrated good ability throw with anticipation and accuracy. Nevertheless, it might benefit his transition to the NFL if Kingsbury could incorporate some West Coast concepts. The DraftBot will also need to find him some more weapons to help him out.

In taking the risk on the trade-back, the DraftBot was banking on the Game Manager label depressing Nix’s draft stock. It sees Nix as having the potential to become an elite game manager, which is something the Commanders can build around and win with. The 2025 first round pick it acquired provides some level of insurance in case it got the pick wrong.

Round 2, Pick 36: DE Darius Robinson, Missouri

6-5, 285 lbs, arm length 34.5”, 4.95 sec 40, RAS 7.78

2023 Stats: 12 games, 29 tackles, 27 stops, 14 TFL, 9 sacks, 42 pressures

Consensus Rank: 32

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

This pick is a no-brainer. The highest player on the DraftBot’s board plays a premium position, aligns with a top need, and aligns perfectly with Defensive Coordinator Joe Whitt’s defensive philosophy.

Robinson played his first four seasons for Missouri at DT and switched to DE in his final season. He has tweener size, which could be a problem for some teams. In Whitt’s defense, he will be able to move all over the line to bring pressure from the edge or the interior.

Robinson’s game is all about strength power and size. He provides the kind of disruption of the pocket that Joe Whitt is looking for. He is also rated as the best edge setter in the draft class. He is so powerful, he can bring down QBs one handed:

Round 2, Pick 40: CB Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri

5-11, 183 lbs, 4.51 sec 40, RAS 6.17

2023 Stats: 9 games, 26 tackles, 7 assists, 10 stops, 0 INT, 2 PBU

Consensus Rank: 32

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

This pick is like déjà vu. The DraftBot continues ticking off the highest rated players on its board. Rakestraw is another physical defender who will suit Whitt’s press-man coverage heavy schemes and make life difficult for opposing receivers.

What Rakestraw lacks in long speed, he makes up for with competitive toughness, combativeness at the catch point and body control. He excels at disrupting routes in press coverage, and is also one of the best run support CBs in the draft.

Rakestraw is another perfect fit to Joe Whitt’s philosophy and scheme. He is on the inside track to compete with Rivera’s left over zone corners for a starting role in camp.

Round 3, Pick 67: LB Edgerrin Cooper, Missouri

6-2, 230 lbs, 4.51 sec 40, RAS 9.26

2023 Stats: 12 games, 75 tackles, 56 stops, 17 TFL, 10 sacks, 27 pressures, 0 INT, 2 PBU

Consensus Rank: 39

Commanders’ Meetings: East West Shrine, Combine, Team Pro Day

Cooper is another highly physical defender with elite speed to patrol the middle of the field. He is a rangy defender with sideline to sideline speed and excels in coverage and containing mobile QBs. He is also a violent tackler which should please his new defensive coach.

The DraftBot had him rated in the early second round, and was amazed to find him still available. He is well ahead of the next player on its board (EDGE Marshawn Kneeland) and was far too good a value to pass up.

Cooper provides the succession plan at WLB for Jamin Davis who hits free agency in 2025. There is a good chance he could surpass Davis and upgrade the position this season.

Round 3, Pick 78: RB Jaylen Wright, Tennessee

5-10, 210 lbs, 4.38 sec 40, RAS 9.81

2023 Stats: 12 games, 137 att, 1,013 yds, 7.4 YPA, 4 TD; 22 rec, 141 yds

Consensus Rank: 74

Commanders’ Meetings: Combine, Team Pro Day

The DraftBot gets its new QB a dynamic playmaker to add some sizzle to the offense. ESPN rates Wright as the most explosive RB in the draft class. He logged 35 rushes of 10 yards or more last season. He is a surehanded receiver and is only just scratching the surface of his potential running routes out of the backfield.

The offseason addition of Austin Ekeler on a two year contract gives the Commanders a solid RB rotation for the season. Lead back Brian Robinson was a revelation as a receiver in 2023, but is a fairly pedestrian runner between the tackles. Wright’s explosiveness adds a big play threat to Kliff Kingsbury’s ground game. He will compete for a spot in the RB rotation in training camp. He has potential to become a three-down back, allowing the Commanders to move on from Robinson when his rookie contract expires at the end of next season.

Round 3, Pick 100: WR Malik Washington, Virginia

5-8.5, 191 lbs, 4.47 sec 40, RAS 8.63

2023 Receiving: 12 games, 111 rec (80.4%), 1,384 yds, 9 TD, ADOT 8.1 yds, 0 fumbles

2023 Kick Returns: 14 returns, 273 yds, 19.5 YPA, 0 muffs

Consensus Rank: 99

Commanders’ Meetings: East-West Shrine game, Combine, Team Pro Day

Washington is widely cited as a player who could exceed his draft status. He is built like a running back and plays bigger than his size. He has a great combination of instincts, focus, toughness and ballskills. He achieved tremendous production in 2023, primarily by making tough catches in traffic on underneath routes, and using exceptional strength and contact balance to break tackles and pick up yards after the catch.

Two 2023 receiving stats tell his story. He averaged 6.4 YAC/rec, which tied him in 18^th place in the draft class. The players he was tied with were Marvin Harrison Jr and Xavier Legette. His contested catch rate of 64.7% would be a pretty good overall catch rate for a WR. Both stats are what you might expect from a much bigger receiver.

Washington is a perfect match to rookie QB Bo Nix, providing a quick first read from the top of his drops and a safety outlet with the ability to pick up chunk gains after the catch. He is well placed to compete for primary slot receiver duties in his first training camp.

Washington is also a quality kick returner, which has increased importance this season with the changes to the NFL kickoff rules.

The DraftBot is baffled that PFF gave it a C+ for picking their second highest graded receiver this late in the draft.

Round 4, Pick 108 (from Vikings): G Cooper Beebe, Kansas State

6-3, 322 lbs, 31.5” arms, 5.03 sec 40, RAS 9.28

2023 Stats: 13 games, 942 blocking snaps, 9 pressures allowed, 2 sacks

PFF Grades: Pass Block 90.4 (3^rd in class), Run Block 79.9 (8^th in class)

Consensus Rank: 63

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

This is starting to feel like highway robbery. The DraftBot had Beebe rated in Round 2 at the start of the draft. He is insane value in the fourth round.

Beebe is a big, powerful interior blocker with brute strength to pancake smaller defenders and move defensive tackles out of the way to open up big holes for running backs. His strength and girth make up for his short arms in pass protection. His feet might be a little slow for a zone blocking scheme, which is not likely to be a problem for Kliff Kingsbury.

His clips are fun to watch.

Adam Peters patched the glaring hole at LG by signing Nick Allegretti to a 3 year, $5.3m APY contract. Beebe enters camp with a realistic chance of unseating him for the starting position. The Commanders finally have depth on the iOL. Imagine that.

Round 5, Pick 139: TE Ben Sinnott, Kansas State

6-4, 250 lbs, 4.68 sec 40, RAS 9.73

2023 Receiving: 12 games, 48 rec (65.8%), 669 yds, 6 TD, ADOT 10.1 yds, 6.8 YAC/rec

PFF Grades: Run Block 76.1 (3^rd in class), Pass Block 72.8 (7^th in class)

Consensus Rank: 63

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

The players on its board keep sliding to its picks and the DraftBot is happy to keep snapping them up. After making one of the steals of the draft with Beebe, it picks up his college teammate Sinnott about a round later than it expected him to go.

Sinnott is an F tight end, who can move all over the formation to give Bo Nix a big receiving target and a downfield blocker in the running game. Sinnott started his Kansas State career as a fullback, but hasn’t made a rushing attempt since 2021. Despite the good PFF blocking grades, Sinnott is primarily a receiver. He has terrific athleticism to run routes and gain separation at all three levels, and excels at picking up yards after the catch.

Despite being a former fullback, Sinnott does not have great play strength for his position. He would benefit from a year in an NFL strength and conditioning program to improve his blocking near the line and to help him win more contested balls in the air. Even so, he should be competitive to earn playing time early in his time with the Commanders as a big receiver while he refines his craft.

Round 5, Pick 152: DT Mekhi Wingo, LSU

6-0, 284 lbs, 4.85 sec 40, RAS 8.78

2023 Stats: 8 games, 14 tackles, 6 assists, 11 stops, 5 TFL, 5 sacks, 19 pressures

Consensus Rank: 116

Commanders’ Meetings: Combine, Team Pro Day

The values keep coming as Day 3 winds on. Wingo should remind Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt of their most utilized DT in Dallas, Osa Odighizuwa. The two players are about the same size with similar athletic profiles.

Wingo is compact, powerful and explosive. He beats blockers with first step quickness, instincts and agility. He is a disruptive interior pass rusher and uses short area quickness to get off blocks and tackle ball carriers. He can rush the passer from the interior or off the edge, which makes him an ideal fit to his new coaches’ defense.

In Dallas, Quinn used a rotation of five interior defensive linemen playing in multiple fronts and pressure looks. The DraftBot suspects that the Commanders’ coaching staff will feel a greater need for DT depth than fans appreciate. Wingo should easily displace Phidarian Mathis on the depth chart and could compete for starting reps in time. He is great value this late on Day 3.

Round 7, Pick 222: S Kitan Oladapo, Oregon State

6-2, 216 lbs, 4.58 sec 40, RAS 8.18

2023 Defense: 13 games, 63 tackles, 17 assists, 23 stops, 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 9 pressures

2023 Coverage: 29 tgt, 16 rec (55.2%), 188 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 4 PBU, passer rating 57.8

Consensus Rank: 161

Commanders’ Meetings: Senior Bowl, Combine, Team Pro Day

The DraftBot wraps things up where it started, by selecting another Oregon State Beever. Oladapo is one of the best kept secrets of the 2024 draft. ESPN might have blown his cover by naming him the best tight end matchup defender in the draft class.

Oladapo is a Legion of Boom safety. He gets characterized as a box safety and big nickel. But the Beevs frequently deployed him at split safety with good results. He was also an effective blitzer, which should appeal to his new coaching staff.

Summing Up

The DraftBot did the best it could to tackle the herculean task of addressing multiple needs at the highest valued positions in one draft. Rather than opting for an approach that would reduce its chances of drafting players to rebuild the roster, it chose to take a gamble on a risky trade which would give it more picks and still address the two most glaring needs.

The DraftBot thinks its gamble paid off, and PFF seems to agree. It is sure that many fans will object to the decision to forgo drafting its second highest rated QB at pick #2. The DraftBot takes comfort in the recent history of QBs drafted in that range, which seems to indicate that highly rated QBs who aren’t the top of their class are nearly always overrated. Rather than concentrate risk on a few, highly valued draft picks, it chose to spread risk across multiple draft picks in 2024 and 2025, ultimately giving the Commanders more opportunities to find the players they need to compete for championships.

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