WCG’s lead draft analyst runs through a 2024 mock offseason for the Bears.
You know the deal: it’s a Bears mock offseason.
I’m going to run an exercise simulating free agency and draft acquisitions for the Bears’ upcoming 2024 offseason. You all know how this works, so I’m just going to bring you into the mix right away.
Here is my latest (and last) full mock offseason for the Bears in 2024.
Bears current cap space: $78.33 million
Re-signings and another cut
Franchise tag CB Jaylon Johnson ($18.8 million cap hit in 2023), then sign to four-year, $100 million deal
I feel confident that Johnson will remain on the Bears in 2024, one way or another. A franchise tag seems like a safe bet to make sure he doesn’t hit the open market, but I eventually think the two sides get a deal done. Ryan Poles may have to fork over a few extra million dollars per year than he would’ve if he got this deal done sooner, but if it means retaining arguably the top young talent on your roster, you pay what you need to.
Re-sign LS Patrick Scales to one-year, $1.4 million deal
Because why wouldn’t you?
Cut RB Travis Homer with pre-June 1 designation to save $1.88 million
Homer is a solid special teamer and decent enough depth at the running back position, but you could get an upgrade over him for cheaper in the draft. Assuming they also don’t extend D’Onta Foreman, the Bears would be smart to let Homer walk and go cheaper for their third-string back.
Cap space heading into free agency: $58.54 million
Free agency signings
Note: All contracts with guaranteed money come from PFF’s projections. The others come from Quinten Krzysko’s customizable offseason simulator.
DE Danielle Hunter: 3 years, $65 million ($21.67M AAV), $40 million guaranteed
It’s not often players of Hunter’s caliber hit free agency, and with the Vikings unable to hit him with the franchise tag, the Bears would be wise to pursue him. ESPN has already speculated the Bears love Hunter, and considering he’s a four-time Pro Bowler coming off a 16.5-sack season, that makes plenty of sense. This deal would essentially have two years guaranteed with an out after Year 2, if Hunter (who will be 30 in October) does decline. However, he’s playing arguably the best football of his career right now, and he’s one of the best edge rushers in the NFL. The chance to solidify that position with Hunter and Montez Sweat could give the Bears the “best pass rush in the NFL” that defensive coordinator Eric Washington recently promised.
C Lloyd Cushenberry III: 4 years, $57.1 million ($14.28M AAV), $34.25 million guaranteed
Factoring in age and Connor Williams’ recent torn ACL, Cushenberry figures to be the best center on the open market this offseason. He’s an ascending talent who’s just 26 years old and has been one of the best pass-protecting centers in the NFL over the last three seasons. He would give the Bears an instant upgrade and a key veteran at a major need.
TE Noah Fant: 3 years, $24 million ($8.0M AAV), $14.5 million guaranteed
Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune indicated in a recent mailbag the Bears could spend money at tight end this offseason. Fant is a freak athlete with experience working under Shane Waldron in Seattle, and it feels like there’s still some potential to tap into with him. Serving as the ‘U’ to Cole Kmet’s ‘Y’ would give Chicago a fantastic duo to run 12 personnel with, which the Seahawks did quite a bit of with Waldron manning the offense.
FS Geno Stone: 2 years, $13 million ($6.5M AAV), $7.25 million guaranteed
Stone dominated in coverage to the tune of 7 interceptions and 9 pass deflections for the Ravens this year. They have Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams already at safety, making it unlikely they extend him. He has his struggles against the run but offers incredible chops attacking the ball, making him a great complement to Jaquan Brisker in the Bears’ defensive backfield.
WR Noah Brown: 2 years, $7 million ($3.5M AAV), $3.75 million guaranteed
Brown was essentially the Texans’ WR4 this year, but he was extremely efficient with 567 yards on just 33 catches. He’s a big-bodied deep threat who could push for the WR3 role in Chicago’s offense.
QB Drew Lock: 1 year, $2.75 million, $2.25 million guaranteed
Lock looked solid filling in for Geno Smith in Shane Waldron’s offense for the Seahawks this year. He knows the system with Waldron now coming over as Chicago’s offensive coordinator and would be a good veteran option for a young Bears quarterback room.
OG David Edwards: 1 year, $1.75 million
Edwards started in 45 of the 53 games he played for the Rams but settled for a backup role for the Bills in 2023. If the Downers Grove native is looking to return home, he’d be strong depth for the interior.
WR Laviska Shenault Jr.: 1 year, $1.5 million
I’d rather try my luck with Shenault over Velus Jones Jr., as the two have similar skill-sets, but Shenault has shown more in the pros. He worked with Bears passing-game coordinator Thomas Brown as his OC in Carolina and could be a good depth piece.
DT Tim Settle: 1 year, $1.25 million
Settle spent the last two years with new Bears defensive coordinator Eric Washington as his DL coach in Buffalo. He’s a capable space-eater who would be cheap and reliable depth.
LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin: 1 year, $1.2 million
Reeves-Maybin was a second-team All-Pro and a Pro Bowler as a special teamer for the Lions in 2023. If you can get that in free agency, that’s a sneaky good addition.
Pre-draft cap space left: $27.1 million
Draft trades
Trade 1
Giants receive: QB Justin Fields, 2024 first-round pick (No. 9)
Bears receive: 2024 first-round pick (No. 6), 2024 second-round pick via Seahawks (No. 47), 2025 fourth-round pick
This trade could be a difficult one to pull off, since it assumes the Giants want to move off of Daniel Jones and that they feel strongly enough about Justin Fields to make a trade for him.
That said, it makes sense for both sides. It’s become quite clear that Jones has a capped ceiling and that the contract New York signed him to has all-time bad potential. Fields is due a fifth-year option in 2025, but a big-time contract wouldn’t be on the horizon for him until 2026, when most of Jones’ dead cap hit would be gone. If the Giants make this trade, they’ll arguably end up with a QB who has higher upside than any rookie they’d be able to draft at No. 6, they’d still have a top-10 pick to work with, and they’d keep the highest of their two second-round picks, flipping the Round 2 they got for Leonard Williams to secure a better quarterback option.
Cap space saved by trading Fields: $3.23 million
Trade 2
Buccaneers receive: 2024 second-round pick via Seahawks (No. 47)
Bears receive: 2024 second-round pick (No. 57), 2024 third-round pick (No. 89)
I didn’t like the way the board shaped up at No. 47, and luckily for me, I was able to sell the pick off to the highest bidder. The Buccaneers traded up to acquire South Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette in my simulation, presumably as a replacement for free agent-to-be Mike Evans. Another third-round pick for the Bears to work with, even if it’s a late one, is still a valuable asset.
Trade 3
Bills receive: 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 111)
Bears receive: 2024 fourth-round pick (No. 129), 2024 fifth-round pick via Packers (No. 159), 2024 sixth-round pick via Rams (No. 198)
As of this writing, the Bears have one pick in Round 5 and no selections in Rounds 6 or 7. The last two drafts have shown that Ryan Poles has a penchant towards acquiring late-round draft picks as a means to essentially get a headstart on undrafted free agency. It would be more surprising to me if Chicago didn’t make a trade to add some more late-round capital. Plus, after going big-game hunting in free agency, they need the extra draft picks to fill up back of the roster spots.
Mock draft
Round 1 (via Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
If the Bears stay put at No. 1, I’d be stunned if the pick isn’t Caleb Williams. He’s the best quarterback in this draft and is a clear-cut choice in a scenario where they trade Justin Fields.
Round 1 (via Giants, projected trade): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Odunze is my WR2 in this draft class, which speaks to how good he is — Malik Nabers is definitely no slouch. I think he’d be WR1 in most recent draft classes, but with MHJ being a near-generational talent, he fades into the background a little more. That said, I’d be flabbergasted if he falls out of the top-10. The Bears trading up to No. 6 secures they get a top wide receiver, and while Nabers went No. 5 in my simulation to the Chargers, you wouldn’t go wrong with either one of them here.
Round 2 (via Buccaneers, projected trade): Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson
With two premier draft picks used on the offensive side of the ball, it’s time to boost up the trenches a bit. I think Orhorhoro tests very well at the Combine this week; he’s an explosive 3-technique defensive tackle with a quick first step, a high motor, a well-built frame and improving technical prowess. This would be a good setting for him to develop his pad level and run-game instincts some more, rotating along the interior before settling into an eventual starting role.
Round 3: Austin Booker, EDGE, Kansas
It’s quite possible Booker goes higher than this off of pure upside. I’m not sure how much he contributes in Year 1, but he has tremendous length, an explosive get-off, tremendous flexibility off the edge and ideal quickness and finesse in his hand usage. He’s raw in terms of his center of gravity and his plan at the point of attack, but he broke out in 2023 with 8 sacks and 12 tackles for a loss for Kansas. Put him under Danielle Hunter to learn the game for a while, and he has the chance to eventually develop into a high-end starter if put in the right situation.
Round 3 (via Buccaneers, projected trade): Christian Haynes, OG, UConn
Between Teven Jenkins’ impending free agency after the 2024 season and the potential out in Nate Davis’ contract if he doesn’t step up in his second year with the Bears, Chicago would be wise to invest in an insurance option at guard if they have the means. Haynes is an All-American with center-guard versatility and a serious mean streak, and his fluidity and acceleration blocking on the move makes him a good fit for the athletic mold Ryan Poles likes up front.
Round 4 (via Eagles): Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee
The Bears have two solid young running backs in Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, but they currently lack a real change-of-pace runner in the backfield. Wright is an athletic freak who reported has a 4.31 40-yard dash with a 44-inch vertical and 10-foot-8 broad jump, and that explosion shows up on tape. His breakaway speed, lateral quickness and vision in space are all quite good, and he fights hard in pass protection. I have a higher grade on him than the back-half of Round 4, but if he’s available here, he’d be a steal for Chicago.
Round 4 (via Bills, projected trade): Kitan Oladapo, S, Oregon State
Oladapo is a three-year starter at the Power 5 level and a two-time All-Pac-12 defender. He’s aggressive in coverage and in run support, showcases good physicality and offers impressive versatility: in 2023, he took 293 reps in the box, 278 in the slot, and 174 as a free safety. He’s a bit tight in the hips but could serve as a good big nickel/dime option and a reliable special teamer.
Round 5: Tahj Washington, WR, USC
After having acquired a big body at wide receiver for the outside, the Bears may want to double-down and add a slot weapon to the mix. Washington was Williams’ top receiver at USC and the only one who consistently created separation — he’s a twitchy athlete who’s undersized yet has the route-running IQ and athleticism to get open in the NFL.
Round 5 (from Packers via Bills, projected trade): AJ Barner, TE, Michigan
Barner graded as PFF’s best run-blocking tight end in the FBS in 2023, and he didn’t have a single drop between his 2022 season with Indiana and his 2023 campaign with Michigan. He’s a coordinated blocker, has good ball skills and can stretch the field a bit — he’s a player worth taking a shot on in the fifth round.
Round 6 (from Rams via Bills, projected trade): Myles Harden, CB, South Dakota
A scrappy small-school cornerback with fluid hips who’s also one of the better tacklers at his position in the 2024 draft, Harden has the tools to be a high-quality backup and a great special teamer at the next level. He held his own against Missouri early in the 2023 season and has the quick mental trigger needed to make the jump from the FCS to the NFL that can be daunting for some.
Final 53-man roster
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Drew Lock, Tyson Bagent
RB (3): Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Jaylen Wright
FB (1): Khari Blasingame
WR (6): DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Noah Brown, Tyler Scott, Laviska Shenault, Tahj Washington
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Noah Fant, AJ Barner
OL (10): Braxton Jones, Teven Jenkins, Lloyd Cushenberry III, Nate Davis, Darnell Wright, Christian Haynes, David Edwards, Larry Borom, Ja’Tyre Carter
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunter, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, Ruke Orhorhoro, Zacch Pickens, Tim Settle
LB (5): Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, Jalen Reeves-Maybin
CB (6): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, Terell Smith, Myles Harden, Jaylon Johnson
S (4): Jaquan Brisker, Geno Stone, Kitan Oladapo, Elijah Hicks
ST (3): Cairo Santos, Trenton Gill, Patrick Scales
Cap space after roster cuts: $4.79 million
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