Bears Mailbag: Free Agency opens and the quarterback discussion rages on

Free Agency is off and running with a busy start to the week. With the 2024 NFL draft six weeks away, there’s still plenty to learn about the Chicago Bears. What have we found out so far? We’ll dive into all of that and more in a special edition of our Bears Mailbag!

Free Agency opened up on Monday afternoon, and the chaos is finally slowing down. The movement started with a Jaylon Johnson extension and is still going strong with a slew of new signings. While the Chicago Bears didn’t spend lavishly during the first wave, they’ve done a quality job of filling holes with veteran talent. With plenty of cap space still at their disposal, what can we expect from the Bears in the second wave of free agency before getting to the draft? We’ll dive into all of that and more in this edition of the Windy City Gridiron Bears Mailbag.

Every offseason seems to be a wave of emotions from the fanbase. For the better part of 15 years, the Bears have come into the offseason coming off a fruitless season. In some cases, especially more recently, the offseason has provided an escape from watching a bad season over the last four months. This year, emotions are much higher than usual. Anticipation plays its role but let’s be honest here. The long-living quarterback conversation has done nothing but grow as each day passes without a final resolution.

I think it’s normal to have a mix of fans who are overly high or overly low on the team’s acquisitions. Most are used to Chicago spending big and “winning the offseason”. That approach has changed drastically under third-year general manager Ryan Poles, and that can take some getting used to. Once the quarterback position is finally resolved and each side has accepted the outcome, emotions should calm down, and I believe that the majority of fans can go back to looking forward to the direction this franchise is heading.

Heading into Monday, I felt pretty confident that the Bears would add a better option at center. All of this despite the warnings of multiple plugged-in beat writers insisting that Ryan Bates was the team’s answer at center. Just two days into Free Agency, the options have dwindled, but a few intriguing options still remain. Outside of Connor Williams— Who tore his ACL late in the season— Coleman Shelton and Evan Brown are the two best remaining options. The plus side with both of those players is positional flexibility. Both Shelton and Brown can play all three positions on the interior offensive line. Neither should break the bank (probably in the $5-to-$6 million-per-year range).

If I had to guess as of Wednesday morning, they’ll go into the draft looking for competition in the mid-rounds. Let me be clear: This is not how I would handle things, but I’ve also noticed that Poles’ view of the offensive line and mine are different.

If it were me, I’d add one of those two veterans and then double dip in either the third or fourth round of the draft. It’s possible that Chicago could trade down from No. 9 overall and take someone like Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson, but that feels unlikely at this very moment. For better or worse, I’d imagine that barring a training camp surprise, Poles’ two-year infatuation with Bates will lead to him getting the first crack at center in Week 1.

As of Wednesday morning (I’ll add this disclaimer because things continue to be fluid), here’s how I would have the Bears’ current needs (not counting the quarterback conversation):

1. Wide Receiver 2
2. Defensive End 2
3. Center/Interior Offensive Line Depth
4. Wide Receiver 3
5. Defensive Tackle
6. Swing Tackle
7. Punter
8. Defensive End 4
9. CB Depth

Because the team already has DeMarcus Walker, I’m not quite as pressed about the defensive end as I am at receiver. With Darnell Mooney agreeing to a three-year, $39 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons on Tuesday, depth at receiver is thin. Regardless of who you believe the quarterback will be in Week 1, serious work needs to be done at this position. The third receiver isn’t quite as pressing considering how much 12 Personnel new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron likes to run. Defensive end is still a pressing need. Both as a compliment to Walker and the depth behind them. As explained above, I still see center as a need. On a good offensive line, Bates would slot in as a swing on the interior. At worst, Chicago needs to add an upgraded version of Cody Whitehair/Dan Feeney. Someone who has the ability to play center or either guard position.

Defensive tackle is another sneaky need. Even if you feel good about Gervon Dexter Sr. (which you should), the depth behind him at three-technique is sparse. Defensive tackle Justin Jones shocked many fans when he agreed to a three-year, $31.165 million deal with the Arizona Cardinals on Monday, which leaves a sizable hole on the interior. Poles could opt to address this in the third round of April’s draft, but it needs to be another spot that needs attention. Swing tackle is a sneaky spot for me. Sure, Larry Borom has been a good story as a fifth-round pick but with a $3.199M cap hit for 2024, it feels like Chicago could upgrade with a veteran at a similar price. Cam Fleming, George Fant, or Yosh Nijman would be targets for me. At minimum, I’m bringing in competition for Trenton Gill, after a pretty rough sophomore campaign. Finally, you can never have enough depth in the secondary.

As shown above, I’m in the camp of the Bears still having multiple needs that vary in importance. Before the opening of Free Agency, I cautioned fans against hoping for big expenditures to expedite the rebuild. With that being said, I was not expecting this type of approach from Poles. Especially with multiple areas on the roster where improvements could be made.

Wide Receiver: Marquise Brown, Curtis Samuel, and Josh Reynolds.

Center: Connor Williams (if medicals check out), Coleman Shelton, and Evan Brown.

Defensive End: Chase Young, Jadeveon Clowney, Mike Danna, Derek Barnett, and D.J. Wonnum (who is expected to visit Chicago tomorrow).

Defensive Tackle: Sheldon Rankins and Tim Settle.

Receiver stands as the biggest need with the most talent. It appears Calvin Ridley is on the verge of heading back to Jacksonville after the new league year. Brown and Samuel should be at similar price points. I prefer Brown due to versatility, but Samuel does have a good relationship with DJ Moore. Reynolds would be my value buy right now. At center, Williams would be ideal, but his medicals are going to be a massive question mark. The other two names I’ve covered. They aren’t great starting options, but Shelton still has some untapped upside. Defensive end is a bit tricky with all of the top names gone. I don’t love Wonnum, but he’ll be in Chicago tomorrow after visiting the Carolina Panthers today. He fits the Eberflus mold. I’d love to see them bring in Young, but my guess is that medicals will be a question with him, too. Finally, the defensive tackle market has thinned out quite a bit. I know that some fans have had their eye on DJ Reader but I’m not sure he makes a lot of sense for the Bears. He’s more of a one-technique who doesn’t possess a lot of pass-rushing ability. Rankins would be a sneaky good add, though. Settle has experience with new defensive coordinator Eric Washington.

Ultimately, Chicago can do whatever they choose to do in Free Agency but I’d expect smaller deals with a focus on the short-term.

Feeling out a new general manager/front office always takes a few years. We’re just now arriving into Year 3 of the Poles era, and it appears we’re finding multiple trends.

1. Poles has little interest in “overpaying” in the first wave.
2. He tends to value paying lower-value positions at the top of the market (ie: linebacker and running back).
3. Financial flexibility and extending current players will continue to hold a higher priority than spending big money in free agency.

At this point, I would say fans are completely justified in being disappointed by the early returns of this Free Agency period. I didn’t have super high expectations, but this has come in lower than I had expected. It’s also becoming apparent— At least to me— That Poles is going to take a Chris Ballard-like approach. He’s going to set his price points and not budge. Most of the time, it will present as cheap, while other times, it’ll leave folks scratching their head on who the team decides to spend money on.

I expected a little more aggression based on their lack of draft capital after Round 1. That doesn’t appear to be a worry for Poles, which leads me to believe that this is just going to be his Free Agency approach. Not expecting top-of-the-market names is an adjustment most fans should probably make. With all of this said, I tend to believe that this is just Poles’ approach to Free Agency as a whole and not indicative of where he feels like they are at in their perceived rebuild. By all accounts, the time to win is now. Anything short of nine wins will probably be viewed as a failure. The good news: We still have six weeks of Free Agency, pre-draft trades, and of course, late April’s draft where Chicago currently holds two of the Top 10 picks.

As of now, the Bears have five draft picks for April’s draft. No. 1, 9, 75, 110, and 122. They’ll be without a second, fifth, sixth, and seventh-round pick heading into draft weekend. Could that change? Absolutely. They hold a pair of top 10 picks and if either are traded, they’ll gain immediate equity. Even so, I’d be pretty surprised if they don’t add at least one wide receiver before the draft.

Looking at the current state of the Free Agent market, there are still plenty of viable No. 2 and No. 3 options. I listed some of them above but there are also multiple buy-low candidates that could slide in as depth. As of now, Chicago has five receivers on the roster. DJ Moore, Tyler Scott, Velus Jones Jr. Nsimba Webster, and Collin Johnson. As you can see, the team currently has three rosterable receivers on the roster. In a worst-case scenario, you’re still looking at adding a minimum of three players. Now, could they double-dip in free agency and the draft? Absolutely. That would probably require more draft capital, but it’s obtainable. For the time being, I’d assume that Chicago will add at least one quality receiver in free agency and another high in the draft. From there, it’ll just be a matter of how it all plays out.

For the most part, I feel like Poles and his front office have done a nice job during this three-year rebuild. They tore this roster down to the studs while taking on the brunt of their bad contracts in Year 1. It leads to a 3-14 season and the No. 1 overall pick. Instead of forcing a quarterback, they intelligently traded away the pick for a ransom, which netted them Moore and the No. 1 overall pick this year, among other things. They’ve been smart about their cap fluidity along the way, while also adding multiple foundational pieces while retaining others like Cole Kmet and Jaylon Johnson.

All in all, I’ve liked the process behind what Poles has done, even if I haven’t agreed with each move. Now, with all of that being said, the decision at quarterback will most likely define not only this rebuild but his entire tenure in Chicago. If he gets it right, Poles’ vision to “Take the North and never give it back.” might become a reality. Chose wrong and there’s a strong chance that he’ll be back in Kansas City’s front office under Brent Veach within a few years.

Assuming Poles makes the right decision at quarterback— A BIG “if”— As long as he continues to draft well and maximize his cap resources during the cheap window of a quarterback contract, things should continue to trend in a positive direction. Who knows, maybe we are looking back at this offseason in February feeling like the Bears have a real shot to be Super Bowl contenders in 2025. Wouldn’t that be nice?

My guess is that we see more than just the Los Angeles Chargers making cap-saving moves ahead of the new league year opening up at 4 pm Eastern Time. With the Chargers in particular, edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, plus receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are all on the chopping block.

Bosa has failed to stay healthy for the majority of his career, including the last two years where he’s missed more games than he’s played. He’s due a whopping $36.612 million this season. Mack finished fourth in the NFL with a career-high 17 sacks in 2023. Somehow Mack’s $38.518 million cap hit tops Bosa. Los Angeles could save $23.25 million by cutting him in the last year of a deal he originally signed with Chicago in 2018.

Allen is a prime extension candidate, while currently being owed $34.718 million in the last year of his four-year extension. Finally, Williams is coming off a torn ACL and is owed $32.46 million in the last year of a three-year deal. The Chargers would save a flat $20 million by releasing him before the clock strikes four.

My guess is that both Mack and Williams will no longer be on the roster by the end of today. Bosa’s situation is a little more tricky, considering his cap savings are less and he’s under team control for multiple more seasons. Allen should get a team-friendly extension to stay put. All in all, the Chargers will creep under the cap, while losing two good players.

Chicago could be in on either player, but my guess is that Mack will want to go to a Super Bowl contender, and Williams’ medicals will keep him on the market until closer to training camp. Keep an eye on some of the other cuts that could happen today, though. None of those would impact the compensatory pick formula and will likely provide better value than what is currently on the market.