Bears Mailbag: Diving Into All of the Pre-Draft Chaos and What To Expect Next Weekend

The NFL draft is now just eight nights away, and with the Chicago Bears expected to make a pair of selections in the Top 10, we decided to answer some of your burning questions!

Eight. Long. Days. That’s how much time we have left until the kickoff of the 2024 NFL Draft next Thursday night. For most NFL fans, this is one of the best weekends of the year. For Chicago Bears fans, it holds even more meaning this year. Not only will they open up the draft on the clock, they hold a pair of Top 10 picks for the first time in decades. Hell, most of us weren’t even alive the last time it happened.

It’s been a busy offseason so far. General manager Ryan Poles has been hard at work, and the roster has been improving. When comparing their pre-draft standing today to how dire this roster looked back in 2022, it’s almost unrecognizable. The rebuild might not be quite over, but the final pieces of the foundation are being placed. So what can the Bears do next weekend to help open their competitive window in 2024 and make a long run of sustained success? We’ll dive into all of your questions and more in this week’s Bears Mailbag.

That’s a great question and one that will likely be answered by how many quarterbacks go before the Bears selection. My assumption for a while now has been that four quarterbacks will go in the first six picks of the draft. Assuming that holds, that would mean that Chicago would be staring down:

1. The best defender in the draft
2. Offensive Tackle No. 2

The next question would be: How many teams are willing to trade up for a non-quarterback or receiver? I guess that the list would be relatively small but not non-existent. Maybe I end up being wrong, but in this exact scenario, I don’t see a fifth team looking to move up for another quarterback. Maybe a team like the Las Vegas Raiders or Indianapolis Colts really like one of the top defenders. The Colts could also be an option for Brock Bowers, too. Especially if they feel like the New York Jets could take him at No. 10.

The issue with a trade down here is that the value for the pick might not be high. In a scenario with one of the Top 4 quarterbacks or Top 3 receivers on the board, there’s a higher premium put on the value of the Bears’ pick. Without it, you’re probably talking about them having to take $85-$.90 on the dollar for a move down. At that point, I almost believe the Bears would be best suited to take their top defender and keep it moving.

Again, everyone is going to have different feelings on the matter, but I believe that the only way a trade-down makes a ton of sense is if there’s a valuable commodity that a team wants to risk their future to come up and get. It’s hard to imagine that happening with all of those Top 8 picks being offensive players.

Call me an optimist, but I don’t see many “nightmare scenarios” for the Bears at No. 9. Now, that’s not to say that there aren’t ways this draft could break for them that would help or hurt them, but they are sitting in a fantastic spot at the back of the Top 10.

Instead, I’ll give you three players I’d not be happy with at nine.

1. DE Chop Robinson
2. WR Brian Thomas Jr. (Or any non-Top 3 receiver)
3. Any Interior Offensive Linemen

In my mind, the Bears are in a spot where they can target four positions: Wide receiver, offensive tackle, defensive end, or defensive tackle. I’m not a huge Brock Bowers supporter that early in the draft, but you could be an asterisk next to his name because he’s likely more than your typical tight end. Even so, I wouldn’t classify him as a super good value.

Even with those four positions I listed, there is a specific set of names that fit the criteria. At receiver, the names are obvious. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. Anyone outside of that can wait from a value perspective. Offensive tackle is a smaller list for me. Assuming Joe Alt is off the board, the only tackle I’d be “happy” with at No. 9 is Olu Fashanu. JC Latham and Taliese Fuaga are right tackle-only guys and half the draft community has them as guys who might be better suited at guard. As much as I like Troy Fautanu, he fits into a similar category as the two names above but he’s much more likely to be a guard at the next level. You can count me as one of the few people who believe that Braxton Jones deserves another year at left tackle, especially with a limited number of picks and multiple remaining needs.

On the defensive line, you could convince me that Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu, and Byron Murphy II are all worthy of that pick. I’m not as high on Verse, and Latu’s medicals concern me, but Turner would be a nice move, and Murphy II could end up being a guy that a lot of people realize was a Top 7-10 player in this draft. Guys like Robinson and even Darius Robinson are players I see more in the 20-35 range versus Top 10 talents.

All in all, I don’t see many scenarios where we finish Night 1 of the draft and question what Poles was thinking with that second first-round pick. Positive vibes over here for me.

I don’t believe that anyone knows for sure who they prefer at receiver but there have been a few reputable reporters that have said the Bears really like Nabers. The fun thing about the Top 3 receivers is that they all bring something different. Harrison Jr. brings the size, straight-line speed, and more well-rounded skillset. Nabers, who is the smallest of the three, is the most explosive, and frankly, the most fun to watch on tape. Odunze is a big, intelligent route-runner who wins most 50-50 balls. He’s not as sudden as the other two, and some have concerns about his ability to consistently separate at the next level. Don’t count me in as one of those detractors but I’ll openly admit that Harrison Jr. and Nabers are a 1a-1b for me, with Odunze being a firm WR3 on my board.

In most other draft classes, Odunze is the unquestioned WR1. I think he’d fit this offense well, and if he’s on the board at No. 9, I’d be pounding the table for the Bears to take him. That’s just my evaluation, though. Poles and this coaching staff could value a different skill set. Whether that’s more separation, explosion, etc, we probably won’t ever find out.

It’ll be very interesting to see how Poles’ decision-making plays out because I firmly believe that at least one of the receivers will be on the board at No. 9. It also wouldn’t shock me if Nabers made it to No. 6 or No. 7 when all is said and done. We could find out quickly how much they value these guys with their actions. Assuming the character checks out, I’d be shocked to see the Bears pass on Nabers. I still think they’d take Odunze, but that decision is closer to 50-50 for me.

The decision that the Arizona Cardinals make at No. 4 overall will start the draft, in my opinion. One way or another, we’ll see quarterbacks go 1-2-3. If Arizona sticks and picks, it feels like a virtual lock that it’ll be Harrison Jr. If they choose to sell the pick to the highest bidder, it brings up an interesting scenario for new head coach Jim Harbaugh and the Los Angeles Chargers. For as much as people believe he’ll go offensive tackle no matter what, it would be hard to pass on a talent like MHJ at No. 5. Assuming your scenario plays out, it would take the New York Giants having similar grades on at least two of these receivers to make this plausible.

Depending on which point-value system you trust more, the Bears would be looking at a difference of 350 (Jimmy Johnson) or 59 (Rich Hill). That equates to No. 55 (Johnson) or the No. 71 overall pick (Hill). Split the difference, and you’re talking about a late second. Sure, Chicago could give up No. 75, and it might get done, but that would leave them with one remaining selection in this year’s class and plenty of holes to fill. More realistically, Chicago would look into trading away one of their two 2025 second-rounders. Values on future picks are always somewhat subjective but you can place a fair valuation anywhere from a mid-second to early third from this year’s point system. In other words, their own 2025 second-round selection would likely be enough, even if it’s a bit of an overpay.

The second question becomes: Is that worth it for Harrison Jr. (or maybe even Nabers)? My answer would be “Hell yes it is”. Being able to pair your rookie quarterback with a stud receiver like MHJ or Nabers for the cost of an extra second-round pick next year would be a best-case scenario in a trade-up for the Bears. Again, though… I’m not sure the New York Giants will be OK giving on that type of talent. Maybe Tennessee ends up being more realistic as a pick later. They could move down two spots, pick up a 2025 third, and still get their second pick at offensive tackle.

The tackle conversation has been interesting this offseason. Depending on how you feel about Braxton Jones, there are a few different ways of looking at this.

1. Jones is good enough right now and still an ascending talent.
2. Jones is replaceable and this might be the last time for a while that the Bears are selecting in the Top 10.
3. Best Player Available, no matter what.

A lot of this conversation revolves around how you view Jones in the long term. For me, I think Jones has a slightly higher ceiling than a guy like Charles Leno Jr. While he’ll never be an elite tackle, you can do a whole lot worse. Others see him as a replacement level player or below, which would explain why some are more open to the idea of replacing him. It should also be noted that this is a very deep tackle class, and many flavors depend on team needs. Chicago has not done a good job of drafting offensive linemen, and they’ve done an even worse job of developing young depth pieces.

On the surface, it makes sense to draft a potential stud at left tackle, to pair with Darnell Wright. My bigger issue is that if you believe Jones is average right now and he has not met his ceiling, does it make sense to replace him over adding talent at lesser spots on the roster? The answer (for me) would be no. I’d keep Jones for this year and see what he can do. Worst case, Poles can use one of his second-round picks next year to trade up and land his target in the first round. In the meantime, I’d take that No. 9 overall selection and turn it into an upgrade at another spot that needs it more, whether that’s receiver, defensive end, or even defensive tackle. The Bears have done a good job of rebuilding talent so far, but I don’t believe they are in a spot to start replacing young players who have performed “good enough” when there are other glaring needs on the roster.

For what it’s worth, if I were ranking needs right now, this is how I’d have it.

1. Defensive End
2. Defensive Tackle
3. Wide Receiver
4. Left Tackle

Again, everyone has a different view, and I wouldn’t be upset if they decided to take a left tackle, but barring Alt sitting there at No. 9, it’s hard for me to imagine that it’ll be a true best player available situation. Either way, it’s hard to imagine many scenarios where the Bears don’t use that selection to get better somewhere on their roster. I’d just rather see it used at receiver or on the defensive line where they need more help.

Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

I’m always up for a good sports conspiracy theory. While you do bring up some good points, I think that this had much more to do with Caleb Williams setting a new standard for how top-of-the-draft prospects will operate than it was about the Bears telling him to do certain things.

Williams’ camp has been pretty upfront about things. They have no issue releasing medical information to viable “candidates,” but he’s not going to give all 32 teams access to that information. When you think about it, it makes complete sense. I’d say there are around 10 teams who wouldn’t even think about drafting him. Then there’s another 15-plus teams that don’t have a shot because of where they pick. Ultimately, it ends up leaving a handful of teams that are even in a remote position to think about drafting him. Being a quarterback, you’re either going to be good and stay with the same team for 10-plus years, or you’re going to flop and end up bouncing around. There’s no real advantage to him giving college-age medical information to teams who wouldn’t even have the opportunity to acquire him for the next three-plus years.

More than anything, I’d like to applaud the Bears for being open-minded. Far too often, we’ve seen this organization shy away from this type of thing. In many ways, it felt like they were afraid of stardom. Everything had to be done on their terms and concerning their “rich tradition.” Poles and his scouting staff going into this process with a mindset that the NIL is a positive, truly helped them get a full picture of who Williams was as a person and football player. In the end, the stars simply aligned for both sides. Had their “touchpoints” not gone well, I believe that the Bears would have hosted other quarterbacks on Top 30 visits, and Williams would have had a limited tour of visits for himself. Luckily, it all appears to have worked out, which has allowed Chicago to focus much more in-depth on what they are doing in other spots. While other teams like the Washington Commanders are still deep in the process of their quarterback evaluation just eight days before the start of Round 1. Bears fans should be very thankful for how well things have played out since they traded the No. 1 overall selection last March.

Regardless of how you view the team’s top two tight ends, it’s hard to argue against adding another tight end. Whether that’s a true blocker or more long-term upside at the U spot. Carlson, on a good roster, is a fourth tight end or their top practice squad option. Again, they are still missing that Marcedes Lewis-type blocker, which Shane Waldron used plenty of in Seattle.

Brock Bowers is an interesting name for many reasons. First, he’s an elite prospect, but he is not in a huge position of value. Second, the history of taking tight ends in the Top 10 isn’t great. With that in mind, I’d bet good money that Bowers is taken within the first 13-15 picks next Thursday night. Could that be a team like the Bears? Sure. They met with him at the combine and brought him in for a Top 30 visit. Many have said that it’s unwise to view him as just a tight end because of how versatile he can be. That’s a fair argument to make, even if I don’t fully agree with it.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Bowers’ value lines up for Chicago at No. 9 but if they were to trade back a few spots, maybe it makes more sense for them. Much like offensive tackle, this feels like a luxury pick, and I just don’t see the Bears as being in a position to make that type of selection. If they want an option at U with some youthful upside, maybe taking someone like Ben Sinnott in the third round makes more sense. Gerald Everett isn’t a long-term option but if Waldron leaves in the next two years, there’s no guarantee that a new offensive coordinator would value tight end nearly as much as Waldron does.

Bowers is yet another player that would fall into the category of me not being upset by the pick but believing they have better options at bigger (more valuable) positions of need. Even in a trade-down scenario, I don’t see many ways where the draft plays out, with him making a ton of sense for Chicago as the “right” pick.

The age-old question is: How much can we trust the Bears’ current regime? It’s more than fair, even as positive as things feel in their current state.

Thus far, Poles has been what I would label as “pretty good” in the draft department. For the most part, he has valued draft picks and has used them wisely. He has shown he’s not afraid to move around, and sometimes, he’s not afraid to use them on proven veteran talent. His scouting staff has also shown a keen awareness of the level of talent in each round. For example, it has widely been said that the talent on Day 3 drops off a cliff this year. In turn, Poles has just one Day 3 pick, which is at No. 122. He’s turned two of those picks into Keenan Allen and Ryan Bates. The chances of a fourth and fifth-round selection panning out better than what these two veterans will give are not very good, even if both are short-term rentals.

Poles and his staff have also shown a good understanding of positional value. We haven’t seen many wonky picks in big spots where positional value doesn’t line up with where they are selecting in the draft. From a talent evaluation standpoint, they’ve had their fair share of hits, along with a few misses. This regime was put in a tough spot in Year 1 with a lack of picks. That included no first-rounder and not a lot of Day 3 capital. After trading a few picks away, Chicago finds themselves without a high quantity of picks but all four selections are slated to be within the first 122 picks of the draft.

Here’s what this comes down to: If they take the right quarterback, everything else becomes a lot less important with this draft class. If they hit on both first-rounders and they become blue-chip players, that’s already a big win. If they can find two quality starters and two key role players (when all is said and done), that should be more than enough. Again, hitting on Williams is the biggest key.

My current “trust meter” is sitting well on the positive side, but I can’t fault anyone else for still being skeptical. Once this draft is over next Saturday evening, we should learn even more about Poles’ draft tendencies and overall values. For now, I’m going to choose to believe that they’ll come away with a few impact players, move around, and have fans feeling even better about the future.