Analytics shows Broncos had one of the ‘best value’ draft classes

The Denver Broncos may have reached in the first round, but they found value and talent everywhere else in this 2024 NFL Draft.

Heading into Day 2 of the 2024 NFL Draft, there was plenty of chatter about how horrible the Denver Broncos reached when they picked Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th overall selection in the first round. However, general manager George Paton noted that because so many quarterbacks were flying off the board early that they’d have been ‘sick’ had they traded back and missed out on drafting Nix.

“We considered moving back, but once Penix went, it got a little stressful there at the end,” Paton said on Thursday. “We had the Raiders behind us, so we just didn’t want to overthink it. This was our guy, and we were going to take our guy. We did think about it, but not too far. We could have moved a couple picks back and maybe have gotten some picks, but at the end of the day, this this was our guy. Let’s just take him. Let’s not overthink this. We would have been sick if we lost him just for a couple of fifth-round picks.”

So all of the draft prognosticators would go on to bash Denver for reaching so hard and grouped them with the Atlanta Falcons surprise pick of Michael Penix Jr., but unlike Atlanta, Denver didn’t have a Kirk Cousins already on the roster. They needed a quarterback bad and they got the one head coach Sean Payton wanted all along. In fact, Payton was downright giddy talking about it on Thursday.

Then we come to a post written by Warren Sharp from Sharp Football Analysis that covered the most and least valuable draft classes this year. The Falcons were right there at the top of the list of least value, but surprisingly, the Broncos ended up in the most valuable list according to a metric Sharp called Draft Capital Over Expectation or DCOE.

Did the Broncos technically ‘reach’ for Bo Nix? Sure, most would agree with that. However, anyone who is telling you their draft sucked is out of their mind. Not only did they overcome that reach, but they found talent at value pick ranges everywhere on the board and ended up with the eighth most valuable draft class in 2024.

Going into his round-by-round results, Denver did have the second-worst value pick in the first round, but ended up with three of the biggest value picks in the fourth and fifth rounds. By and large, I think this Broncos class is sneaky good and if Bo Nix works out then that’s really all that matters. No one will remember how big of a reach Nix was if he turns out to be a Top 10 quarterback in the NFL.

How do you feel about this draft class overall? Did Denver get the value and the talent to make this class an exciting one for you to watch this year?