Aaron Leming’s Full First-Round Mock Draft

The NFL draft is just one day away. And with that, comes the yearly tradition of releasing my lone full first-round mock draft covering all 32 selections.

1. Chicago Bears (Via Carolina Panthers) QB Caleb Williams (USC)

For most Bears fans, this has felt like a foregone conclusion since Chicago locked up the top pick—thanks to the Carolina Panthers—back in late December. The trade of Justin Fields only solidified the fact that the Bears will be taking a quarterback come draft night, and very likely at No. 1 overall. For as much talk as there’s been about the team’s failure to develop quarterbacks in past years, this is arguably the best situation a top quarterback would be walking into in Year 1.

2. Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)

If this was a mock based on what I would do, this would be Drake Maye. Maye’s arm talent, combined with his athleticism is one that teams yearn for each year. Instead, it appears that the winds are blowing in the direction of taking the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner. Daniels has plenty of college experience but didn’t come on until this past season. Daniels’ athleticism is undeniable. He’s got the best deep ball in this class. He also doesn’t target the middle of the field and has average arm talent at best. He’s a prime fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense but this is a risky pick, passing on the upside of someone like Maye.

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3. Minnesota Vikings (Via New England Patriots) QB Drake Maye (North Carolina)

Trade Terms: Minnesota sends picks No. 11, No. 23, and a 2025 first-round pick to the New England Patriots for pick No. 3.

The first big trade of the draft comes at No. 3 overall. For a while, I had New England penciled in for this pick but as the smoke has picked up and how non-committal the Patriots have been, I’m going with a big-time trade. The Vikings made waves earlier this off-season when they doubled up on first-round picks in a trade with the Houston Texans. For some reason, it does not appear that Washington or New England are overly enthralled with the prospect of taking Maye this high. Their skepticism is Minnesota’s gain, even if it comes at a hefty price. The Josh McCown tie helps this move along but by all accounts, the Vikings seem to love Maye.

4. Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State)

I’ve gone back and forth on whether or not this will be the fourth quarterback in a row off the board. The Vikings traded into the first round with the Houston Texans in mid-March, signaling that they are ready and willing to make a move for one of these quarterbacks. The price (No. 11 and No. 23) would be about right to move up to No. 4 but if Arizona is locked onto Harrison Jr. (as has long been speculated), Minnesota might need to wait for an extra pick to make that move happen. The former Ohio State product is the best receiver we’ve seen come out in quite some time. It’s hard to see him not being a superstar and he’d be a great top weapon for Kyler Murray.

5. New England Patriots (Via Los Angeles Chargers) QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)

Trade terms: New England Patriots send No. 11, No. 34, and a 2025 third-round pick to the Los Angeles Chargers for No. 5.

More craziness? You’ve got it! The Patriots take a page out of the Arizona Cardinals book. They gain a pair of first-round selections in return for dropping eight spots and trade a lesser package to get back up to No. 5 and land a similarly graded quarterback in McCarthy. It’s possible that the return on this deal might be a bit too light but even with a quarterback tax, this trade’s point differential favors the Chargers. This allows New England to keep their low first-round selection and their extra 2025 first. McCarthy also walks into a situation where he can sit and learn behind Jacoby Brissett until he’s ready to play. For the Chargers, they gain two extra picks and are still in prime striking position for an offensive tackle at No. 11.

6. New York Giants WR Malik Nabers (LSU)

There’s plenty of smoke around the Giants looking for a quarterback. After a questionable extension for Daniel Jones last off-season, the veteran quarterback followed up with a disastrous season that was filled with a pair of serious injuries. The worst thing a team can do in this situation is to double down on the same quarterback but if the Vikings trade up in front of them, they might not have a choice. If this scenario plays out, Nabers makes a world of sense. The Giants need offensive weapons and Nabers is much closer to Harrison Jr. as a prospect than most believe might want to believe. Looking at New York’s current receiving corps, they need a massive overhaul. Nabers immediately gives them a true No. 1 option, regardless of what happens at quarterback.

7. Tennessee Titans OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)

With the Los Angeles Chargers trade down, Tennessee lucks into the top offensive lineman on the board. Heading into the season, it appeared Alt was firmly locked in as the OT2. As the season played out, the tides turned and now it appears that Alt is firmly locked in as OT1. He’s a mammoth human being with excellent movement skills. He’s a well-balanced blocker that comes from a great program. The Titans had one of the league’s worst offensive lines in 2023 and this would be another step in the right direction. Especially with second-year quarterback Will Levis under center. Receiver is an option here but protecting their young quarterback should take top priority.

8. Atlanta Falcons DE Dallas Turner (Alabama)

Much like Tennessee, Atlanta could opt for a pass catcher here. Considering they’ve already spent big money on Darnell Mooney in free agency and acquired Rondale Moore via trade, it might be best to turn their attention to the defensive side of the ball. This would also be the first defensive player off the board. Turner is a great fit for what Atlanta is looking to do and fills a big need for a team that should be the favorites for the NFC South. Turner showed out well in his lone season without Will Anderson. His length and speed are the best in the class but his overall size could dictate specific schemes.

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9. Cincinnati Bengals (Via the Chicago Bears) WR Rome Odunze (Washington)

Trade Terms: Chicago sends No. 9 to Cincinnati Bengals for No. 18, No. 49, and No. 115

The Bengals find themselves in an interesting spot at receiver. A year ago, it appeared they had one of the best 1-2-3 punches in the league. Now, they’ve got Ja’Marr Chase— Who is up for a lucrative contract extension soon— An unhappy Tee Higgins, who is playing on the franchise tag, and Tyler Boyd unlikely to return, despite still being without a home on the free agent market. Despite missing the playoffs last year, this is still a team that should be in Super Bowl contention in 2024 but needs more help at receiver long-term. In most drafts, Odunze would be WR1. The fact that all it will cost the Bengals is a pair of non-first-round picks this year is a big win for them in the short and long term. It also allows them to more seriously entertain trading Higgins before the start of the regular season. Heck, maybe even during the draft to recoup some draft capital.

10. New York Jets TE Brock Bowers (Georgia)

Before Free Agency, I would have mocked an offensive tackle. Instead, general manager Joe Douglas added a pair of one-year veterans on the bookends with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. This entire regime is on thin ice in New York. They are hoping Aaron Rodgers can come in and save the day, even if it’s for a year, maybe two. The Jets’ offensive depth chart looks better than it did with the signing of Mike Williams but adding a top-tier talent like Bowers at tight end should not be overlooked. Especially with a defense that is already stacked with talent. All things being equal, Bowers is a Top 5 talent. Position value likely keeps him out of the Top 10 but this would be outstanding value outside of the Top 10.

11. Los Angeles Chargers (Via New England Patriots) OT JC Latham (Alabama)

In many ways, this feels like a win-win for the Chargers. Earlier in the off-season, new general manager Joe Hortiz, and head coach Jim Harbaugh had some tough financial decisions to make. Ultimately, they were able to keep defensive ends Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack but parted ways with their pair of veteran receivers, Allen and Williams. Offensive tackle is a huge need and Latham would slide in as a Day 1 starting right tackle. It’ll take some time to rebuild the receiving corps, but with an early second-round pick in hand, they can knock that need out quickly on Day 2.

12. Denver Broncos DE Laiatu Latu (UCLA)

There are a multitude of different ways the Broncos could go here. They finally cut the cord with quarterback Russell Wilson and this appears to be a rebuild on the fly. Could they reach and go with someone like Bo Nix or Michael Penix at quarterback? Absolutely. When all is said and done, my guess is that Denver would be smarter waiting until the second round to try and make that happen. Even though that would entail trading a future pick, along with their third-round pick to make that happen. Latu is the best pure pass rusher in this class. The biggest question will be his medicals but there’s plenty of smoke surrounding this exact pairing.

13. Las Vegas Raiders CB Terrion Arnold (Alabama)

The Raiders continue to add to their defense with this pick. Much like the Broncos, quarterback could be a consideration here, but it would not be a value pick. Instead, Las Vegas gets their pick of the top corner in the draft. Quinyon Mitchell has been a fast riser and possesses everything a team looks for in an elite cornerback, but I do believe that Arnold is the safer option this early. All of a sudden, the Raiders’ defense becomes a strength in a division with two elite quarterbacks under center.

14. New Orleans Saints OT Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State)

The Saints’ current tackle situation became dire when the injury news of right tackle Ryan Ramczyk was revealed earlier in March. His rehab has hit a stall and it does not appear he’ll be ready for the majority of the 2024 season. Trevor Penning has struggled mightily, so adding someone like Fuaga early in the draft serves a dual purpose. He could immediately slot in at right tackle for this season and then if Penning doesn’t develop, they can figure out who is best suited to play the left side in 2025. New Orleans has multiple different routes they could go but Fuaga falling to No. 14 is a gift they probably wouldn’t expect.

15. Chicago Bears (Via Indianapolis Colts) DT Byron Murphy II (Texas)

Trade Terms: Chicago Bears send No. 18, No. 115, and a 2025 fourth-round pick to Indianapolis Colts for No. 15

There’s been plenty of smoke around the Bears trading down and recouping a Day 2 pick. More specifically, I believe general manager Ryan Poles will be looking for a second-round selection in return. The only realistic way to do that might be to move down further than he’s comfortable with and then move back up if the right target is still available. That’s exactly what happens here with Murphy II. Sure, there’s been plenty of smoke that the former Texas product could be the first defender off the board but because of his size, scheme fit will be paramount. Outside of Atlanta at No. 8, I don’t see many teams targeting a one-gap three technique before this pick. Chicago nets a second-rounder in total and still lands one of their top targets.

16. Seattle Seahawks OL Troy Fautanu (Washington)

I might still be in the minority but I believe that Fautanu can play tackle or guard at the next level. All in all, he’s one of my favorite offensive linemen in the class and I love his versatility. For Seattle, left guard is a massive hole after Damien Lewis signed a massive three-year, $53 million contract in Carolina. All in all, the Seahawks don’t have many glaring holes. So, unless they feel the need to address quarterback with someone like Michael Penix or Bo Nix here, offensive line seems like the play.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars CB Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo)

Jacksonville has a few needs, including cornerback and receiver. After losing Calvin Ridley and signing Gabe Davis, I’m slotting cornerback as a bigger need, especially in the NFC South, where the quarterback talent is improving. Mitchell might end up being the best defensive back in this entire class. I had thought seriously about mocking him to Oakland at No. 13 but decided against it. This is great value for the Jaguars over halfway through the first round and fills a big need on a playoff-ready roster.

18. Indianapolis Colts (Via Chicago Bears) WR Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU)

Indianapolis has long been rumored as a potential trade-up candidate depending on how far the Top 3 receivers fall. This could be another spot where Chicago looks to make a deal but with the return they received from Cincinnati, this scenario could make more sense. Thomas would immediately slot in as a contributor, especially as a vertical threat. The LSU product needs to continue to refine his route running but the size/speed combo is going to attract many teams with a need at the position. Indianapolis gets some receiving help while adding a mid-fourth-round pick in the process.

19. Los Angeles Rams DE Jared Verse (Florida State)

Earlier last week, the NFL Network’s Peter Schrager went on record as saying he believes head coach Sean McVay will use his first-ever first-round selection on the offensive side of the ball. While that might be the case, they need a lot of help on the defensive line as well. Verse is a player who might not ever be an elite pass rusher, but he’s well-rounded, and his motor runs hot 100% of the time. The Rams surprised a lot of people last year but they did lose Aaron Donald to retirement this offseason. Adding to the defensive line will be paramount to being able to get back to the playoffs in 2024.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers OT Olu Fashanu (Penn State)

As noted above, the drop for Fashanu throughout the 2023 season has been surprising. Still, as a pass blocker, I have him graded as a Top 10 talent. Olu looks like he’s built in a lab. He’s also young for a third-year prospect and has every ability to become an elite left tackle at the NFL level. His run blocking and overall technique needs some refinement but the Steelers have done a good job of late with developing offensive line talent. Considering both quarterbacks on their roster have high sack rates, building in the trenches is a must. This would be a value pick at this juncture of the first round.

21. Miami Dolphins DE Chop Robinson (Penn State)

Every year we see guys go in the first round that weren’t projected by many to do so. Usually, it’s a speedy receiver or an edge rusher. Call it a gut feeling, but it feels like Miami is going to make one of those selections this year. Whether it’s receiver Xavier Worthy (because of his speed) or Robinson. In this mock, I’ll go with Robinson because Edge feels like a sneaky need for this team. With Jaelan Phillips recovering from a torn Achilles suffered in Week 12 of last season and Bradley Chubb tearing his ACL in early January, it’s time that Miami adds some reinforcements at the position. Robinson brings plenty of speed and a high ceiling. Even in a rotation (when everyone is healthy), this defense would be much better getting to the quarterback.

22. Philadelphia Eagles CB Nate Wiggins (Clemson)

Despite having some big names at the position, the Eagles’ secondary regressed in the back half of 2023. They did bring back Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and still have Darius Say but James Bradberry looked like a shell of himself and Slay is 33 years old. Wiggins would be an outstanding value here and tested very well. Philadelphia has re-shaped this defense and this would be another pick to fortify a once dominant unit.

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23. New England Patriots (Via Minnesota Vikings) WR Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

The Chargers might have taken a risk by passing on a receiver at No. 5 when they traded down with the Vikings but their two first-round picks would make Jim Harbaugh very happy in this scenario. First, he gets his franchise right tackle at No. 11 overall. Then he turns around and starts working on replacing the two veteran receivers they parted ways with in March. Mitchell is an interesting prospect. He’s got all the talent in the world but effort has been an issue of his in the past. He’s got the makings of a star but it’ll be up to the coaching staff to get him to his high-ceiling of potential.

24. Dallas Cowboys OT Amarius Mims (Georgia)

Months after getting thoroughly embarrassed by the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, the Cowboys were one of the league’s most dormant teams in free agency. Don’t get me wrong, Dallas still has plenty of talent. With that in mind, they’ve lost much more than they’ve gained. For my money, offensive line needs to be the pick here. Jackson Powers-Johnson or Graham Barton also make a lot of sense here but after losing Tyron Smith to the New York Jets in free agency, left tackle becomes a priority here. Mims is still raw but his ceiling is undeniable. Of all the teams in the NFL, the Cowboys are one of the more trusted franchises when it comes to developing offensive line talent.

25. Green Bay Packers OT Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma)

In what felt like a situation that concluded a year too late, the David Bakhtiari era is finally over in Green Bay. Despite being one of the league’s best left tackles for the better part of a decade, his health has failed him in recent years. Combined with a big cap hit and no Aaron Rodgers moving on made too much sense. Much like Dallas, the Packers have been excellent at developing offensive line talent. Guyton makes a world of sense here and much like Mims, provides a very high ceiling. Green Bay could trust Zach Tom and Rasheed Walker to man the tackle spots but adding someone like Guyton gives them more flexibility and upside. Cornerback could also make sense here as well.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers IOL Graham Barton (Duke)

Simply put, Tampa Bay needs to get better on the interior offensive line. What better way to do that than to add a versatile piece like Barton to the mix? Most have the former Duke product as a center prospect but the Buccaneers can utilize his versatility to field their best five. Barton’s primary experience has come at tackle but he did play some center earlier in his college career. When all is said and done, don’t be surprised if Barton ends up as the best interior offensive lineman of this class.

27. Arizona Cardinals CB Cooper DeJean (Iowa)

I debated a few different positions for this selection. At first, I was going to slot Jackson Powers-Johnson here but after more thought, it seems more likely that head coach Jonathan Gannon will be looking to add to his defense after landing the best receiver in the draft. DeJean is a polarizing prospect for some. Whether he sticks at cornerback or slides back to safety, he’s a playmaker and a freak athlete. Even better, he brings plenty of value as a return specialist, which could pay off big considering the new kick-off rules.

28. Buffalo Bills WR Ladd McConkey (Georgia)

In my head, Keon Coleman is wearing Bills’ colors in 2024. I couldn’t tell you why other than his game reminds me of Kelvin Benjamin. In reality, there are a few better receivers on the board that would fit the Bills’ offense. Then again, Buffalo is in serious need of receivers after trading away Stefon Diggs and allowing Gabe Davis to walk in free agency. McConkey is my top-rated receiver but I could also see Xavier Worthy making sense, considering they just lost their vertical threat in Davis to free agency. Either way, receiver is a big need for Buffalo. Despite having one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, they’re going to have to fight like hell to keep their Super Bowl window open in the coming years. I wouldn’t rule them trading up for someone like Thomas but it’s hard for me to see many teams wanting to drop this far back without a sizable return.

29. Detroit Lions DL Darius Robinson (Missouri)

Last year was the first time in a while that Detroit veered from the script when it came to adding to the trenches in the draft. Sure, they did select Broderick Martin in the third round but that was one of the more head-scratching decisions in last year’s draft. This year, they go back to the script of building in the trenches. Robinson is a perfect fit in Aaron Glenn’s defense. He has plenty of versatility to play on the edge and inside. There’s a chance that Robinson ends up going closer to 20 when all is said and done but if he’s here, this is a no-brainer for the Lions.

30. Baltimore Ravens OT Jordan Morgan (Arizona)

After trading away Morgan Moses to the Jets, right tackle is a bit of a question mark in Baltimore. Ronnie Stanley’s injury history, as of late, hasn’t been great either. There was a run of offensive linemen at certain points in the first round but Morgan makes a lot of sense here. He has positional versatility and should be able to play on either side of the line. Even if Baltimore wants to give one of their current candidates the first crack at the right tackle job, Morgan’s ceiling is higher than anyone they have on the roster at right tackle. He could also slide inside and be a top-tier guard at the next level. If there’s one team that has been great with developing offensive line talent, it’s been Baltimore.

31. Las Vegas Raiders (Via San Francisco 49ers) QB Michael Penix (Washington)

In reality, I’d expect more trades in the first than I projected. For me, it’s harder to see how things are going to play out and which teams are going to value a player enough to trade up for them in a non-quarterback slot. I’ll end the first round the same way it began, with chaos. The Raiders are in a tough spot. They gave Minshew a two-year, $25 million deal but Antonio Pierce reportedly loves Daniels. A lot of that is based on their ties going back to Arizona State. Barring a surprise, it’s hard to imagine Daniels falling past the Top 3 and becoming a realistic option for the Raiders to pursue. Instead, they show some patience and decide to take a swing on a quarterback at the tail end of the first round. Vic Tafur of the Athletic has reported that the Raiders would be comfortable taking Penix at No. 13 but I can’t justify putting him that high in this mock. The Broncos could also be in the quarterback market but their lack of draft capital on Day 2 will cause them some issues. I do prefer Penix to Nix and taking him in the late first is much more justifiable. Especially with a brand new regime that will have the leash to develop a quarterback.

32. Kansas City Chiefs CB Kool-Aid McKinstry (Alabama)

There are multiple different ways this pick could go for Kansas City. It’s not uncommon to see teams trade out of the first round this late in the draft order. It’s also not uncommon to see a strange reach. For the Chiefs, their needs are relatively defined. After trading away L’Jarius Sneed to the Tennessee Titans for a 2025 third-round pick, cornerback presents a bigger issue than receiver. Adding Marquise Brown on a one-year deal helped me make this decision. McKinstry is a quality prospect with a respected pedigree. This is the type of player Kansas City has struck gold on before. If they want a receiver, I can’t help but feel like Worthy or Coleman could make a ton of sense at 32.