5 Qs with Stampede Blue

The Panthers are set to face the most YOLO quarterback in the NFL

We don’t spend near as much time around here talking to our counterparts covering AFC teams like the Indianapolis Colts, so you can imagine my surprise at just how much we had to talk about this week with Stampede Blue editor Chris Shepherd. From breaking in rookie quarterbacks to, well, breaking in Frank Reich’s offensive scheme, Chris was kind enough to give insight and empathy in equal measure for the long suffering fans of the Carolina Panthers. He was unkind enough to throw a little salt on the wound for all of you C.J. Stroud fans out there.

He also gave us the keys to beating the unhappy marriage of Shane Stiechen’s rigid philosophies and Gardner Minshew’s “yolo” play style. Read on to get the Colts fan perspective in advance of the Panthers home game this weekend.

The Indianapolis Colts have a functioning running game headlined by Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss. Panthers fans have recently lost their familiarity with the concept. What is the key to the Colts’ success and how would you scheme a defense against them?

The key to their success has really been their blocking up front and Zack Moss’ emergence as a legitimate back. The Colts line is doing a good job getting movement and opening holes for their backs to run through. Jonathan Taylor is starting to look like the guy that led the league in rushing two seasons ago and having Moss available to keep Taylor’s load light, is huge for the team moving forward.

The question of how to stop it actually has an easy answer: just load the box.

My biggest criticism of Shane Steichen and his offense so far has been the way they check out of run plays at the line. The Colts have one of the highest paid offensive lines in football. They just paid a running back $14 million per year and their backup running back is currently second in the league in rushing yards through 8 weeks (and Moss missed week 1 with an injury). And when they come out and see 8 men in the box, Steichen would rather check to a pass than attempt the run. And if you have a good quarterback, that’s usually a sound plan. When you’re starting Gardner Minshew, you might want to consider giving the ball to the backs more often. So far though, the Colts haven’t been willing to run into a loaded box even though I think they could find success doing so. So just stay in your base set and then just wait for Minshew to make a mistake. You probably won’t have to wait long.

Gardner Minshew is throwing the ball almost three times as much as Anthony Richardson did before he was injured. Is that more game script dependent or was that a result of Richardson’s rookie development plan?

A lot of it is because teams are loading the box and Indy is checking out of runs. Minshew can’t drive the ball downfield and Richardson was throwing 40 yard jump passes on a rope. Teams (correctly) aren’t worried about Minshew beating them with the deep ball, so they load the box and dare Minshew to beat them with his arm. Minshew always takes the dare and outside of a couple of floaters, he just doesn’t have the arm to make defenses regret that decision.

The offense was also a lot more creative with Richardson at quarterback. There were a lot of interesting things that Richardson could make work physically that Minshew just can’t. So that could be part of it too.

Colts fans only saw four games out of Richardson before losing him to injury for the season. Do y’all think he’s the real deal, a bust, or is the jury still out?

First, four games is nothing. Half a season at the quarterback position is nothing. You can’t really evaluate any of the quarterbacks yet, for such a difficult position to play there are going to be adjustments and some guys are going to hit the ground running, others are going to stumble out of the blocks. Defenses are just now getting the tape on these guys to try to figure out ways to beat them. So those guys that started out fast are going to have to adjust as defenses adjust to them and guys that started slow have been making adjustments and will be getting better as the season rolls on.

But having said all of that, what we saw from Richardson was very encouraging. He is farther along in his development than everyone expected him to be. He is one hundred percent the athlete he was billed to be and most importantly he never looked like a guy who only started 13 games in college. He came in from day one and looked comfortable leading the Colts offense- a kid that turned 21 just days before training camp, was comfortable leading the team on and off the field. A lot of people tried to bill him as “an athlete trying to play quarterback” and while those of us who watched his college tape knew that wasn’t true, it’s been great to see that despite having things to improve, Anthony Richardson is very obviously a quarterback who just so happens to be the most athletic person to ever test at his position in the history of the NFL Combine.

You’ve watched a Frank Reich game or two in your time. Did his 0-6 start in Carolina surprise you? Are y’all glad he’s no longer in Indianapolis?

His 0-6 start didn’t surprise me, at all really. But that’s probably not the indictment that Panthers fans might think it is. Back in 2018 in his first season as head coach the Frank Reich Colts started 1-5 with Andrew Luck at his absolute peak as a player. The Colts then went on to win 10 of their next 12 games, they made the playoffs and won a game before losing to a much better Kansas City Chiefs team.

Reich’s system is complex and it takes time for guys to pick up. I expected the Panthers to start out slowly and they have. I do expect the offense to start to smooth out in the coming weeks and things to look more fluid. The biggest differences I see between the 2018 Colts and the 2023 Panthers is that the Colts offensive line was excellent over the back half of the season after they figured out their lineup and got on the same page and the fact that Andrew Luck was a seventh year veteran. I’ve watched a few Panthers games this season and I have very little hope that the offensive line is going to improve to a great degree and Bryce Young is very much a rookie.

Each year Frank Reich was in town they started a different quarterback and each time the quarterback came from a different system, it took Reich time to figure out how to win with that quarterback. But each time, he did it. Luck had a great year, Brissett had his best season, Rivers finished with his best season in years, he got 9 wins out of Carson Wentz. The owner then forced general manager Chris Ballard to get rid of Wentz and find another solution. He found Matt Ryan and Reich was fired after the offensive line fell apart and the corpse of Matt Ryan couldn’t avoid the pressure and before he could figure out a way to fix the issues that were largely based around the roster construction of the offensive line. I’m not sure how many games the Colts would have won with Frank Reich as the head coach, but there is no way they would have been in position to draft Anthony Richardson. We could put our tinfoil hats on, but I’ll just say I have a few ideas of why the offensive staff was dismantled a week before Irsay fired Reich. And if you knew about the Irsay press conference a few years back where he talked about how he was willing to endure a few losing seasons if it meant a long run of success, well if you put all of that together, you might have a different idea of why Reich was let go when he was.

The question of am I happy he gone is a complicated one. On one hand, no, I’m not. I believed and still believe Reich is a good coach with a complex system (and because of that he has always started slowly). However having said that, I’m also really glad the Colts have Shane Steichen paired with Anthony Richardson. Reich wouldn’t have been the right guy for Richardson, frankly C.J. Stroud would have been, but what’s done is done and I have no doubt Reich will figure out how to win with Bryce if he’s given the time to do so.

The line for this game has drifted ever so slightly towards the Colts. They started as -2.5 point road favorites and are now at -3 with Draftkings Sportsbook. (Editor’s note: The line was -3 at the time of the interview, at the time of publication it is back to -2.5) Do you agree with the betting markets that the Colts should win this? What is your score prediction?

First, I’ll say the Colts should win this game. They’re the better team (not by much, but still). But I’m not sold on anything and I can’t bring myself to put any money on this one.

It’s so hard to say what the Colts are going to do week to week. The only thing that has remained consistent is that the offense keeps scoring more than 20 points and the Colts are the only team to score at least 20 in every game they’ve played this season. With that said, given Minshew’s limitations, I do believe that streak will end sooner than later and I do believe the Panthers have the pieces on defense to limit the Minshew led offense if things bounce their way.

On the other side of the ball, the Saints came to town last week and I was convinced the Indy defense would roll over what had been a terrible New Orleans offense. Instead Derek Carr looked like Drew Brees and the Indy defense let them move the ball at will.

Coming off that performance, facing the team’s former coach who knows the defensive coordinator’s scheme and tendencies better than anyone else, not to mention most of the defensive players have returned from a year ago and well, I’m not sure about this one at all for the Colts.

If I have to pick a final score I’m picking it 20-19 in favor of the Colts but I don’t feel good about it, at all.