American Football

49ers projected to receive 2 comp picks in ‘25 after a week and a half into free agency

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Super Bowl LVIII - San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs
Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

Taking a look at the comp pick formula and why the number is only at two

The San Francisco 49ers came into the league new year somewhat handcuffed by the salary cap. Despite having a quarterback on a rookie contract, the team had a plethora of All-Pro caliber players, which means they have All-Pro-type contracts.

When the team asked Arik Armstead to take a pay cut, he refused, creating an Armstead-sized hole along the defensive line. So, Armstead bid farewell after signing a $51 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The 49ers signed defensive tackle Jordan Elliott, who figures to replace Armstead and Javon Kinlaw’s run-stopping ability. Yetur Gross-Matos is a length, interior pass rusher in the mold of Charles Omenihu and Arden Key.

But it wasn’t just Armstead who walked in free agency. Randy Gregory is gone, and Chase Young is with the New Orleans Saints. Leonard Floyd is an upgrade over Young and a proven pass rusher, even if he’s on the wrong side of 30.

But Young, Gregory, Armstead, Kinlaw, and Clelin Ferrell are five bodies compared to the three defensive linemen signed. The 49ers still have the NFL Draft—and could still sign somebody else in free agency—to address the defensive line. But, for now, that’s five losses compared to three gains in free agency. That’s good for the comp pick formula but not so much for the team’s depth.

Looking at Over the Cap, here’s how they have the Niners comp pick formula a week and a half into free agency.

Free agents lost:

Chase Young
Sam Darnold
Javon Kinlaw
Clelin Ferrell
Charlie Woerner

Oren Burks and Sebastian Joseph-Day do not count toward the formula. Let’s examine the additions.

Free agents gained:

Leonard Floyd
Yetur Gross-Matos
Jordan Elliott

Cornerback Isaac Yiadom, offensive lineman Brandon Parker, quarterback Joshua Dobbs, and linebacker Ezekiel Turner don’t count toward the comp pick formula.

Over the Cap says Young’s $13 million contract cancels Floyd’s $10 million deal. Kinlaw ($7.25M) and Gross-Matos ($8M) cancel each other out, as do Ferrell’s ($3.75M) and Elliott’s ($5M) contracts.

That leaves Darnold, who signed a $10 million deal with the Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers are currently slated to receive a fifth-round comp pick from that deal—and Woerner’s $4 million contract, which nets the Niners a 7th-rounder next year.

So, as it stands, the 49ers will receive a 5th and 7th-round comp pick in next year’s NFL Draft based on their moves in free agency.

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