2024 NFL Mock Draft: Chiefs choose wide receiver

With the 32nd overall pick in the 2024 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, Kansas City Chiefs GM SakPrescott selects …

Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

Before we get into why McConkey is the choice here, let’s set the stage by talking through the Chiefs’ draft tendencies, their needs heading into the draft, and what options remained after the rest of the league finished pillaging the draft board.

GM Brett Veach is fairly aggressive when it comes to fitting young talent around his star QB and TE. This is evidenced by the fact that he’s had first round picks in only three of his first six drafts, with the first missing pick being traded by his predecessor to jump up to get Patrick Mahomes and the other two used to pull in Frank Clark and Orlando Brown Jr. to shore up major roster gaps. In his first draft, he used that aggression to seemingly target needs, and it resulted in easily his worst draft (the only 2018 pick still with the team is NT Derrick Nnadi). Since then, he’s put a focus on using the pre-draft free agency period to sign young veterans to fill any existing roster gaps, letting him adopt a bit more of a Best Player Available strategy, and this has worked out a lot better for him.

In terms of player evaluation tendencies, it’s clear that Relative Athletic Scores (RAS) are important. Looking at the first two rounds across all of his drafts, Veach has selected a player with an 8+ RAS in 9 of 13 picks. Odds are he’s going to aim for athletically gifted players that he believes can be coached up, a decision made more comfortable knowing that they can muddle through with the veterans he’s signed as needed. There are also some position-specific tendencies, which we’ll talk about next.

So what positions will the Chiefs be looking at this weekend? For a two-time defending champion, it’s a pretty robust list.

Wide Receiver: The 2023 receiver room was largely a collection of mediocrity. The Chiefs dropped 2.6 passes per game, easily worst in the league. Second year WR Skyy Moore failed to progress from his lackluster rookie season and Super Bowl punt return hero Kadarius Toney fell apart. The only bright spot in the receiver room was rookie Rashee Rice who became a driving force in their offense despite leading the team in drops. A year later, they’ve signed Hollywood Brown to be a field stretcher and true outside threat. But the team would be looking to draft someone with downfield skills from this year’s deep receiver crop even if they weren’t monitoring Rice’s uncertain legal situation after his eventful evening on the Dallas Autobahn. Rice will almost certainly miss time, and the real question is how much. The Chiefs will need to evaluate prospects for their ability to help the team both with and without Rice’s strengths (lining up off ball and running those full speed crossing routes underneath) on the field.

Offensive Tackle: At best the Chiefs are short on depth at OT, while at worst they need to find a new starter at left tackle, as last year’s starter Donovan Smith has yet to be re-signed and the jury is still out on last year’s third round pick Wanya Morris. The team appears set to go again with Cris Collinsworth’s favorite tackle, Jawaan Taylor, on the right side, but they’re going to need to at least draft someone capable of being a reserve for the left side.

Edge: The Chiefs have George Karlaftis, second year Edge Felix Anudike-Uzoma, and re-signed FA Mike Danna handling the DE rotation and expect to get Charles Omenihu back from his ACL injury sometime later in the season, but could use another Edge in the rotation. Steve Spagnuolo looks for DEs capable of rotating inside on passing downs without being completely exposed, meaning he usually looks for DEs that are 6’3” or taller, weigh at least 260 lbs, and have longer arms (at least 33”) with functional strength.

Cornerback: Some pundits have declared this a position of desperate priority for the Chiefs since they traded away former starter L’Jarius Sneed. However, there’s still a full contingent still on the roster, between All-Pro Trent McDuffie, fellow third year players Josh Williams and Jaylen Watson, second year player Nic Jones, and the former safety they really liked at corner until he suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp, Nazeeh Johnson. They’ll undoubtedly draft a corner at some point in this draft, but there is no pressure to reach for a corner in the first round if no one falls to them.

Defensive Tackle: With the team re-signing five-time All-Pro Chris Jones as well as his backup Tershawn Wharton and the nose tackle rotation of Derrick Nnadi and Mike Pennel, the Chiefs don’t need to find an immediate starter on the interior. However, they no doubt would like to find another strong pass rushing 3-technique to take more load off of Jones and keep him fresher or grab a long-term starter at the 1-technique. If they can find someone capable of playing both roles effectively, all the better.

The Chiefs could also stand to flesh out their depth at linebacker, tight end (especially with Travis Kelce getting up there in years and finding new reasons to enjoy his life away from the field), and safety. The team also needs to add a running back to their position group. This might also be the year the team finally drafts a backup of the future for Patrick Mahomes and making Carson Wentz the last of a string of veteran backups. However, none of those are positions I’d expect them to spend early draft capital on unless someone like Brock Bowers fell into their laps.

Sadly, Brock Bowers didn’t fall into their laps, and neither did several prospects I’d hoped might fall. Kool-Aid McKinstry, possibly the best press man corner in this class? Adonai Mitchell, the best remaining receiver after the top 4 left the board earlier? Guyton and Morgan, the two remaining OTs to consider at that spot? All gone in rapid order as we approached pick 32.

After eliminating Edges undersized for a Spagnuolo defense (that means you, Laiatu Latu and Chop Robinson), corners not athletic enough to consider at this spot, and the linebackers and interior linemen that make no sense for the Chiefs to pick here, I had a wide selection of flawed receivers plus a DE to consider, barring doing something crazy like making Braden Fiske a first rounder. In the real world, I think the Chiefs seek a trade down here. This being the BGN community mock with no trades permitted, let me quickly walk you through my thinking for making this pick instead.

Some of the receivers were easy to eliminate early. Troy Franklin has his fans, but (a) a 10% drop rate (per PFF) will not cut it and (b) no one should have to hope their first round pick will result in the first Oregon receiver to make a Pro Bowl since Ahmad Rashad last did it 43 years ago. As much as it pained me to eliminate Keon Coleman, he projects best either as a guy who runs downfield to go after 50-50 balls (which is not how the Chiefs scheme) or line up off-ball to run crossing routes underneath at full speed (which is what they use Rashee Rice for when he’s on the field). And though Xavier Worthy was a sexy projection to the Chiefs after he blew past the combine 40 record, his catch rate (63%) doesn’t compare to his rivals and his contested catch rate (23.8%) is downright alarming for a team that struggled with that last year.

I gave Darius Robinson serious consideration, especially since the middle tiers of receivers are really deep this year. He’s tempting, especially since his size and strength gives him the flexibility to play at the edge or as an inside pass rusher. The guy is impressive, but he has shown some issues with play recognition, which is problematic in a defense that relies on the line doing much of the heavy lifting against the run. He also has a tendency to play out of control at times, which is not a great fit for Spagnuolo’s system, which excels when everyone plays their roles and trusts the rest of the defense to do theirs. This defense doesn’t want a guy freelancing and losing contain like Nick Bosa did repeatedly to the Niners in the second half and overtime of Super Bowl LVIII. Robinson seems a much better Day 2 option.

So that leaves Xavier Legette and Ladd McConkey, and there are reasons to like both and reasons to be concerned about both.

Xavier Legette is easy to root for, given his hard road to the pros. He lost both parents before he even left high school. When he got to South Carolina, he was stuck behind a glut of more senior (though not necessarily better) receivers, and that was made worse by coaching turnover. He broke out after finally getting an opportunity in the 2022 Gator Bowl, leading the team in yards and TDs. He’s a great athlete (9.66 RAS) with substantial success as a deep threat. His 2.7% drop rate in 2023 was phenomenal, and he received by far the highest grade against man coverage of any of the other receivers being considered at this spot. But he also has issues with change of direction, stemming from sub-par acceleration and burst, and that’s going to be a problem in an Andy Reid offense. He also has shown difficulty working back to the QB at times, which is a problem the Chiefs already have too much of in their receiver room.

Ladd McConkey, however, is considered one of the best route runners in the draft. In particular, receiver evaluation guru Matt Harmon tweeted that not only does he consider McConkey best in this class at the out route, he may be best in the past several classes. Despite being smaller in stature, his contested catch rate isn’t too far from Legette’s, and with an 81% catch rate overall, the guy just hoovers passes thrown at him. His YAC performance (6.3 yards per reception) is respectable. His counting numbers were stunted in 2023 thanks to an injury and playing in an offense reliant on the run, but when he was on the field, his use rate was the highest among his peers, targeted on 25% of the routes he ran. As a result, he has the highest yards per route run (3.26) of any of the other receivers in this cluster. The guy produces:

His physical measurements closely resemble Garrett Wilson. Brett Kollmann compares McConkey to Tyler Lockett, while others have comped him to Elijah Moore and “a faster” Diontae Johnson. Tell me that wouldn’t be fun to watch in an Andy Reid offense. More importantly, he’s got the flexibility to line up as a flanker (taking advantage of that route running) or in the slot (when Rice is not available). He is on the smaller side, which creates concerns about how he’ll handle press man, but the Chiefs did figure out how to get Tyreek Hill going free at the snap, so I think they can figure out something for Ladd.

All of this combines to make McConkey the most logical choice for the Chiefs in this mock draft.

If you’d like to see more details on McConkey, Underdog Football did a great dissection of him on YouTube:

2024 BGN Mock Draft Order

1) Bears (Draftjunky): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2) Commanders (surefooted): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3) Patriots (niels.rosenquist): Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
4) Cardinals (eaglenomics): Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
5) Chargers (SeanEFootball): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6) Giants (89Tremaine) Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
7) Titans (Philly21): Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
8) Falcons (Eagles_Blitz80): Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
9) Bears (pheebthegoose): Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
10) Jets (GreenGrampa): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
11) Vikings (The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
12) Broncos (PBARB1978): Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
13) Raiders (iam4theBirdz): Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
14) Saints (Fly Like An Eagle): Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
15) Colts (J. Wil): Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
16) Seahawks (Phreezy E): Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
17) Jaguars (dredscottroberts): WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
18) Bengals (grantspectations): Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
19) Rams (Nolo0oo): Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
20) Steelers (Dr.MidnightGreen): Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
21) Dolphins (Neil Dutton): JC Latham, OT, Alabama
22) Eagles (ablesser88): Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
23) Vikings (RabidPanda13): Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
24) Cowboys (Elliptical Man): Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
25) Packers (LeFire): Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
26) Buccaneers (FlJoe): Graham Barton, OL, Duke
27) Cardinals (green1us): Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
28) Bills (Leo Bedio): Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
29) Lions (MrOilman): Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
30) Ravens (LancGuy): Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
31) 49ers (SakPrescott): Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
32) Chiefs (Hoosinole): Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

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Now it’s time for you to vote for who YOU think should be selected in the 2024 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft.

1) Bears: QB Caleb Williams
2) Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels
3) Patriots: QB Drake Maye
4) Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
5) Chargers: WR Malik Nabers
6) Giants: WR Rome Odunze
7) Titans: OT Joe Alt
8) Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner
9) Bears: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
10) Jets: TE Brock Bowers
11) Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy
12) Broncos: QB Bo Nix
13) Raiders: OT Taliese Fuaga
14) Saints: OT Troy Fautanu
15) Colts: CB Quinyon Mitchell
16) Seahawks: DT Byron Murphy
17) Jaguars: CB Terrion Arnold
18) Bengals: OT JC Latham
19) Rams: EDGE Jared Verse
20) Steelers: OL Jackson Powers-Johnson
21) Dolphins: OT Amarius Mims
22) Eagles: CB Cooper DeJean
23) Vikings: EDGE Laiatu Latu
24) Cowboys: OT Tyler Guyton
25) Packers: CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
26) Buccaneers: OG Graham Barton
27) Cardinals: EDGE Chop Robinson
28) Bills: WR Brian Thomas Jr.
29) Lions: CB Nate Wiggins
30) Ravens: OT Jordan Morgan
31) 49ers: DT Jer’Zhan Newton
32) Chiefs: