2024 NFL Draft quarterback deep dive: Michael Penix Jr, Washington

Are the potential rewards with Michael Penix worth the risk?

Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr might be one of the most divisive prospects in draft rooms, at least among the top quarterback prospects.

Penix has obvious arm talent and can make every throw likely to be asked of him at the NFL level. However, he has an undeniably unorthodox throwing motion that doesn’t look like it should work as well as it does.

He’s a smart, experienced quarterback, and highly productive quarterback who finished second in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting (292 first place votes). He also took his team to the National Championship in his final season. However, he also has significant injury concerns and has had lapses in his accuracy and efficiency on tape.

The New York Giants have (at least) done their due diligence on all of the top quarterback prospects as they prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft. Each of the quarterbacks in this class present challenges in their evaluations. So what are Penix’s strengths and weaknesses? Just how high is his ceiling, and is the potential reward worth his potential risks?

Background

Penix, 23, was moderately recruited out of highschool. He was rated as a three-star recruit by ESPN and 247Sports, and a four-star recruit by Rivals, and was ranked by ESPN’s as the 40th “Pro Style” quarterback, while 247Sports ranked him 21st, Rivals ranked him 14th Pro Style quarterback in the 2018 recruiting class.

Despite being not nearly as well-regarded as recruits like Trevor Lawrence, Tanner McKee, or Devin Leary, Penix received offers from several prominent programs. He got scholarship offers from Indiana, Florida State, Oregon, Tennessee, Arizona, Rutgers, South Florida, Florida Atlantic, Toledo, Samford, and Georgia State, before committing to Indiana.

He spent the next four years at Indiana, though he only played a total of 21 games and had each season ended by injury. Penix transferred from Indiana to the University of Washington in 2022 and established himself as a top quarterback prospect. He managed to stay healthy at Washington, playing 28 games in his two seasons there, while also throwing for nearly twice as many yards and touchdowns (with just four more interceptions) as he did at Indiana.

Measurables

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Penix has adequate size for the position at 6-foot-2¼ inches, 216 pounds with long 33 ⅝-inch arms and big 10 ½-inch hands. He doesn’t have the standout size usually preferred by NFL evaluators, but he’s hardly undersized. Penix has enough height to scan the full field and adequate size to withstand contact in the pocket or as a runner.

His hand size allows him to easily grip the ball and control it while maneuvering in the pocket. Likewise, he’s able to pump-fake and reset without losing his grip on the ball, or throw with touch.

Intangibles

So much of what we focus on with quarterbacks is tangible — things like their height, weight, 40 time, or their ball velocity. However much of what makes a quarterback successful is intangible.

We can’t really measure things like mental processing, football IQ, leadership, or competitiveness, but we can see their effects.

Football IQ and Mental processing

Penix shows a good football IQ throughout his game.

He has a very good command of his offense, with an understanding of the various passing concepts as well as the blocking schemes. Penix understands where his answers are in any given play and also understands where pressure is likely to come from.

Penix is obviously a very experienced quarterback who’s seen a variety of different defenses over his career. He understands how they manipulate defenses and he uses his eye discipline to manipulate defensive backs, expanding receiving windows. Penix works through his progressions well, with his helmet visibly cycling though his reads. The Washington offense puts a fair amount on Penix’s mental plate and occasionally asks him to make full-field reads. Penix also knows when to move off his deep reads and to his check-down option or throw the ball away entirely.

He doesn’t get stuck on his reads and is generally a responsible decision maker. He doesn’t often get flustered or put the ball in danger due to miscommunication or misreading the defense.

Leadership and Toughness

Penix is obviously a mentally tough and resilient quarterback. It could have been easy to medically retire after his fourth season-ending injury. However, Penix made yet another comeback and played the best football of his career. He then returned to school again, played at a Heisman Trophy level, and took Washington to the National Championship game.

Penix has been well-regarded as a leader dating back to his time at Indiana.

Indiana head coach Nick Sheridan said of Penix, “We think Michael can be very special, but we’re pushing him to take ownership of the offense, hold guys accountable, and make sure it’s right. When the quarterback runs the room, we got a good shot.”

At the time, Penix said, “Just knowing the plays, being ahead of the game, knowing what the defense is gonna do so I can check to a better play if it’s necessary. Just continue to lead and continue to motivate the whole offense to go out and work hard.”

Teammates and coaches at Washington rave about Penix’s leadership as well. He took it upon himself to call a team meeting before their game against Texas at the Sugar Bowl this year, and it reportedly resonated with the UW locker room.

Head coach Kalen DeBoer said, “This guy really all month was on another level as far as his mission to make sure that this happened. And I think you saw it all week in practice. There was just nothing he was going to let slide by where we would leave a doubt that we were going to find a way to win.”

Wide receiver Rome Odunze said, “He’s that guy.”

Arm talent

Penix combines a strong arm with an unconventional throwing motion.

Penix is, obviously, left-handed and has a very compact throwing motion that doesn’t involve a pronounced stride or a long wind-up. He also uses a “three-quarters” arm slot, as opposed to an “over the top” motion used by many passers. Rather than obviously generating power from the ground up and transferring it through his kinetic chain like a whip, Penix seems to drag the ball through the motion. The combined result is a throwing motion that’s reminiscent of Philip Rivers – or perhaps the mirror image of Rivers.

Penix’s throwing motion lends itself to a low release point with a flat trajectory. He has solid height and long arms, however his arm slot leads to him playing like a shorter quarterback than he measures.

He is a generally accurate quarterback who flashes the ability to deliver the ball with pinpoint precision in the short-to-intermediate area as well as timing and anticipation down the field. Penix does a good job of placing the ball to minimize defenders’ opportunities to make a play on it, as well as set his receivers up for success. He throws a tight spiral and is able to generate the velocity to attack all areas of the field as well as challenge tight windows underneath.

Penix’s quick release allows him to get the ball out in a hurry, beating defenders closing on the ball as well as pass rushers applying pressure. He doesn’t have a particularly elastic arm, however he is able to throw from a side-arm slot to work around defenders.

His large hands allow him to throw with good touch for a strong-armed quarterback, and Penix does have the ability to throw with a higher trajectory and layer the ball between defenders.

That said, his accuracy is inconsistent and can break down in certain situations.

Most notably, his accuracy degrades when he’s forced to move his feet and reset or accelerate his process due to pressure. Penix doesn’t have a large stride at any time, however he can fail to transfer his weight at all in the face of muddy pockets or pressure. That can lead to him over or under-throwing receivers. He can also place his passes poorly when he has to accelerate his process and throw behind receivers. Penix can also be inconsistent when leading receivers running crossing routes.

Teams will also have to contend with the fact that Penix is left handed.

His sack rate and pressure to sack rate suggests that he’s able to respond well to pressure from either edge. Likewise, he routinely executes full field reads. His tendency toward accuracy issues when the game accelerates appears more significant than throwing to either side.

Athleticism

Penix is perhaps best described as a functional, but awkward, athlete.

He has enough athleticism to navigate the pocket, flowing away from pressure to buy time and give himself better passing lanes. He also has enough short-area quickness to evade less athletic pass rushers. But while Penix can extend plays against less athletic or undisciplined rushers, he lacks the top-end athleticism to be a consistent threat with the ball in his hands. He simply lacks the grace, fluidity, speed, and agility boasted by other top quarterbacks in this draft class.

Penix is able to pick up yardage when the defense turns its back on him, and he does have 13 rushing touchdowns over the last five years. However, any production he’s able to generate on the ground should be considered a bonus and Penix shouldn’t be counted upon as part of a team’s regular rushing attack.

As mentioned above, Penix suffered four season-ending injuries in four years at Indiana. Most notably, he tore his right ACL twice, once in 2018 and in 2020. He also suffered a sprained AC joint on his left (throwing) shoulder in 2021, and suffered a sternoclavicular sprain and fractured clavicle in his right (non-throwing) shoulder in 2019.

Penix reportedly received a clean bill of health during medical checks at the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine. However, the possibility exists for future re-injury or a degenerative condition in the joints. A study by Dr. Kate E. Webster (and colleagues) published in the American Journal of Sports Medicine found that 27 percent of young athletes who suffered two torn ACLs suffered a third within the 4.5-year follow-up period.

A 2018 meta-analysis found that 11.3 percent of people who suffered torn ACLs would develop osteoarthritis within 5 years of the injury, with the rate climbing to 20.6 percent after 10 years.

Future injury or arthritis obviously isn’t a given, and the teams that are interested in Penix will have to do their due diligence. In doing so, they’ll also have to weigh the risk of future injury against his upside as a passer.

Projectable stats

The use of stats and analytics is changing how we view and analyze the game of football. However, just because we have masses of data points, doesn’t mean we automatically make better decisions. Data that’s misunderstood or poorly interpreted is the same as no data at all, and distracting noise at worst.

However, there are some stats and advanced analytics that do have predictive value. Some stats, such as sack rate, are “sticky” and can follow quarterbacks from college to the NFL, as well as from team to team.

For our purposes, we’ll be looking at completion percentage, yards per game, EPA, and ESPN’s QBR. Each of those stats have a moderately-strong to strong correlation coefficient between college and the NFL. None of them are definitive, but they’re another tool that can help provide a backstop to check bias as well as confirm what we did (or didn’t) see on tape. For reference, I’ll be listing their rank among top quarterback prospects in 2023.

Yards Per Game: 324.9 (2nd)
Completion Percentage: 65.6 (7th)
EPA: 75.4 (3rd)
ESPN QBR: 82.8 (4th)
Sack Rate: 1.8 percent (2nd)

Penix was a productive and relatively efficient quarterback in 2023. The most notable outlier in his stats is his accuracy, which only led Drake Maye among the top quarterback prospects. His best mark was a 68.8 completion percentage as a true freshman back in 2018. His accuracy was very consistent at Washington, with him completing 65.3 percent of his passes in 2022.

As noted above, Penix’s unconventional delivery lends itself to a low, flat trajectory and he had passes batted at the line of scrimmage at a relatively high rate as compared to the other prospects. That almost certainly contributed to his pedestrian accuracy, and it could be a concern at the NFL level where front seven players tend to be selected for length and athleticism.

Penix produced points and yards at a high rate at Washington, leading to a strong EPA that only trailed Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix in 2023. He’s willing – and able – to test defenses deep. He has solid accuracy deep and makes good decisions with his deep passes that leads to him attempting a good number of passes in the most valuable distances.

Penix’s most notable trait is his fantastic sack rate. He has the second-lowest sack this year, narrowly trailing Bo Nix, and has the best career sack rate at just 2 percent. Penix’s sack rate is a product of a nearly microscopic pressure-to-sack rate (3.2 percent in 2023). It wasn’t that Penix wasn’t pressured at Washington, but rather that he moves through his progressions quickly and has a cardsharp’s instinct for when to cut bait on a play. Penix doesn’t tend to be stubborn when it comes to making his reads and quickly makes up his mind as to when to throw the ball away or find his check-down option.

Game tape

Final word

Michael Penix Jr. might have the widest range of possible career paths among any of the top quarterback prospects.

At the high end, his football IQ and ability to act upon his reads – that is, his ability to make any throw asked of him without taking drive-damaging sacks – suggests a very high ceiling. His athletic limitations may prevent him from being the kind of dual threat quarterback that gives defensive coordinators brain craps trying to plan against. However, he has the ability to win from the pocket in the mold of a classic drop-back passer.

Penix might not be the type of quarterback who can make magic happen on a broken play. However, he can allow the players around him – the offensive linemen, receivers, tight ends, and running backs – to execute to the best of their ability.

Quick processing, good decision making, and accurate passing don’t require the type of obvious athletic traits that lead to SportsCenter highlight reels, and don’t tend to get as much respect among fanbases at large. However, teams like the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and Miami Dolphins have used those traits to shred opposing defenses and rack up points and yards.

Penix very well could be the next in the line of quarterbacks including Brock Purdy, Matt Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff. It isn’t difficult to envision him efficiently leading a top 5 or 10 offense – even if he doesn’t get credit for such.

At the opposite extreme, Penix could see his career derailed by injury.

This piece wasn’t written by a medical expert, and those of us on the outside don’t have access to his medical reports. That’s important to keep in mind and we shouldn’t overreact to his injury concerns. However, we also can’t discount them entirely either.

The specter of reinjury will always be present with Penix. His twice-repaired right knee is of the most concern, but the fact that he was limited to just five games in 2021 due to an injury in his throwing shoulder can’t be ignored either. We should accept the NFL’s conclusion that Penix is healthy now, however the greater question is whether his next injury is a career ender, or if a degenerative condition will take its toll in five or 10 years.

Teams will have a better handle on the likelihood of reinjury or long term concerns. For those of us on the outside, it should be considered an unknown and a risk factor. Teams themselves will need to determine just how much of a risk it is when assessing their draft stock. But the likelihood that his career could come to a premature end needs to at least be considered.

At the middle, between either extreme, Penix’s tendency toward having batted passes and inconsistent accuracy under pressure could lead to flashes of brilliance and frustrating stumbles.

Michael Penix is legitimately great at refusing to allow pressure to result in sacks. Combined with his arm talent, that usually predicts success at the NFL level. However, better defenses exploited his throwing motion and degraded his accuracy, while pressure led to inaccuracy on his part. Michael Penix should be a productive quarterback as long as he lands in an offense that plays to his strengths and he stays healthy.

However, longer, faster, and smarter defenses at the NFL level could well exploit the flaws in his game.

There’s obviously no such thing as a perfect prospect, and Michael Penix isn’t the exception to that rule. He has a high ceiling but also comes with undeniable risks. Teams can – and have – done worse than “good but flawed” quarterbacks. Teams that are considering drafting Penix should assess their appetite for his associated risk, and make sure they have a plan in place to allow him to play to his strengths. The right team could be richly rewarded, as long as they understand that they may also be frustrated or never see their investment pay off.