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Week 16 DVOA Preview: Packers Rising

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Week 16 DVOA Preview: Packers Rising
Aaron Schatz
26 Dec 2022, 01:49pm

Week 16 DVOA Preview: Packers Rising

The Buffalo Bills are still a clear No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings for the 2022 season. San Francisco is still the No. 1 team in our weighted ratings that give less strength to early games. Below that, there are some teams rising and falling over recent weeks.

One big riser is the Green Bay Packers. The Packers move up two spots to No. 11 with their Christmas Day win over the Dolphins. In weighted DVOA, the Packers climb three spots to No. 9, passing the Dolphins, Jets, and Seahawks. The Lions (despite losing to Carolina) and Packers are now No. 8 and No. 9 in weighted DVOA, respectively, possibly setting up an exciting win-and-you’re-in game for Week 18.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are another hot team making a playoff run. They move from No. 16 to No. 12 in reuglar DVOA and from No. 15 to No. 11 in weighted DVOA after beating the Jets on Thursday night.

Kansas City moves up one spot in full-season DVOA and now ranks fifth, ahead of the Baltimore Ravens. However, the Cincinnati Bengals rank ahead of both teams in weighted DVOA. There’s a fairly large gap over eight percentage points between the weighted DVOA top six teams and the No. 7 Ravens, who have been fading in part because they’ve got backup Tyler Huntley playing quarterback instead of Lamar Jackson.

As those teams move up, the Jets and Patriots each move down three spots. The Tennesse Titans also move down three spots and the Denver Broncos plummet seven spots to No. 27 after getting keelhauled by the Rams yesterday. Their defense, which was No. 1 at one point near midseason, is down to seventh.

The Houston Texans climbed out of the DVOA basement with their win over Tennessee but we’ll have to see what happens to the Indianapolis Colts tonight. If they have a good game, they’ll climb up past the Texans again.

A truncated version of the DVOA preview today because of the holiday. We’ll be back with a full DVOA column tomorrow.

* * * * *

Here are the Football Outsiders efficiency ratings through 16 weeks of 2022—except Monday Night Football—measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). Click here for the full table (requires an FO+ subscription on Mondays).

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.

WEIGHTED DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more important than earlier games.

RK TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
WEEK
WEI.
DVOA
RK W-L OFF.
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEF.
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 BUF 32.7% 1 29.9% 2 12-3 17.6% 3 -12.2% 4 2.9% 7
2 PHI 28.5% 2 27.8% 3 13-2 18.0% 2 -10.7% 5 -0.3% 17
3 SF 26.7% 3 36.5% 1 11-4 10.2% 7 -16.3% 1 0.1% 14
4 DAL 22.2% 4 22.0% 5 11-4 4.9% 13 -14.0% 2 3.2% 3
5 KC 18.9% 6 21.7% 6 12-3 23.7% 1 4.1% 21 -0.7% 18
6 BAL 18.6% 5 13.5% 7 10-5 8.2% 9 -7.4% 8 3.1% 4
7 CIN 16.2% 7 23.3% 4 11-4 14.6% 4 -2.7% 14 -1.1% 19
8 MIA 8.3% 8 7.5% 10 8-7 14.4% 5 2.3% 17 -3.8% 31
9 DET 4.5% 9 8.2% 8 7-8 11.4% 6 9.9% 28 3.0% 5
10 SEA 4.1% 11 2.1% 12 7-8 5.6% 12 5.9% 26 4.4% 1
11 GB 4.1% 13 7.8% 9 7-8 8.0% 10 2.7% 19 -1.3% 22
12 JAX 2.3% 16 2.5% 11 7-8 9.7% 8 8.1% 27 0.7% 12
13 CLE 2.2% 14 1.2% 14 6-9 7.1% 11 5.3% 24 0.3% 13
14 NYJ 2.1% 10 1.8% 13 7-8 -6.5% 21 -10.2% 6 -1.6% 24
15 NE 1.4% 12 -0.8% 17 7-8 -10.1% 27 -13.1% 3 -1.6% 24
16 TB 0.3% 15 -7.8% 23 7-8 -1.7% 17 -5.8% 9 -3.7% 30
17 PIT -1.9% 17 -0.5% 16 7-8 -2.1% 18 -3.2% 12 -3.1% 29
18 ATL -4.2% 18 -5.7% 20 5-10 4.6% 14 11.5% 30 2.7% 8
19 WAS -4.8% 19 -0.2% 15 7-7-1 -11.3% 28 -3.7% 10 2.9% 6
20 NO -5.8% 24 -2.3% 18 6-9 -6.9% 22 -2.8% 13 -1.7% 27
21 NYG -8.2% 22 -7.2% 22 8-6-1 4.4% 15 11.2% 29 -1.3% 23
22 LAC -8.2% 23 -10.9% 26 8-6 -7.3% 24 2.4% 18 1.5% 10
23 LAR -8.3% 27 -4.2% 19 5-10 -7.8% 25 -0.7% 15 -1.2% 21
24 TEN -8.3% 21 -9.8% 25 7-8 -5.3% 20 1.4% 16 -1.6% 26
25 MIN -9.3% 25 -11.7% 27 12-3 -2.5% 19 4.5% 22 -2.2% 28
26 LV -11.3% 26 -7.2% 21 6-9 -0.2% 16 12.3% 31 1.2% 11
27 DEN -13.0% 20 -17.2% 28 4-11 -16.9% 30 -7.8% 7 -3.9% 32
28 CAR -13.7% 28 -8.0% 24 6-9 -10.1% 26 5.2% 23 1.6% 9
29 CHI -21.3% 29 -23.6% 30 3-12 -6.9% 23 14.2% 32 -0.2% 16
30 ARI -22.2% 30 -20.0% 29 4-11 -16.6% 29 5.6% 25 0.0% 15
31 HOU -26.5% 32 -24.2% 32 2-12-1 -26.4% 31 3.8% 20 3.6% 2
32 IND -26.9% 31 -23.8% 31 4-9-1 -29.0% 32 -3.3% 11 -1.1% 20

#1
by jhm8163 // Dec 26, 2022 – 2:04pm

maybe that vikings DVOA will show up against the packers this week – and maybe not.

Points: 1

#2
by ADrunkenRabbit // Dec 26, 2022 – 2:29pm

Only 8 teams with a DVOA over 5%

Has the league as a whole ever been this mediocre? I genuinely think this might be the worst season I’ve ever watched.

Points: 1

#3
by AFCNFCBowl // Dec 26, 2022 – 2:46pm

How do the Bucs still have positive DVOA?

Points: 0

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