American Football

Using PFF’s season simulator to project Garrett Wilson’s 2023 stat line


Syndication: The Record

What might we expect from the Jets’ star receiver?

The other day I used the ProfootballFocus in-game simulator to run a one-game simulation for the New York Jets 2023 season. Upon examining the output, I decided a more fun way to use this tool might be to focus on the player stats, which are outputted for quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

To do so, I decided to run many simulations and then to examine how the outputs vary across simulations. In an ideal world where I had dozens of hours of manpower to dole out, I would have run this hundreds of times to provide the best estimate possible… however, I am but one man with a laptop so I’m going to settle for 10 runs.

As a second foray into this task, I am going to focus on the output of New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Regarding wide receivers, the tool outputs receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns; additionally, using these figures I went ahead and calculated yards per catch (yards divided by receptions).

While no simulation is perfect and 10 simulations is hardly representative, PFF’s simulator has some pretty favorable expectations for Garrett Wilson. The average season consisted of 70+ catches, ~6 touchdowns, 1000+ yards, and 14+ YPC, which would place him well within the “top 30 wide receivers” conversation that theoretically positions a guy as a WR1 within a 32 team league.

With that said, there are simulations wherein Garrett took a significant step back, as noted by his minimums of 58 catches and 840 yards. This would be a rather disappointing outcome for a second year player who is coming off an 83 catch, 1100 yard rookie of the year season despite catches passes from quarterbacks whose careers pale in comparison to new quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Of note, within the 10 simulations, Garrett’s maximums did not seem to far exceed his 2022 output, potentially reflecting that PFF views Garrett as having little room for improvement regardless of the quarterback.

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