White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson is hoping for a healthier season after a torn tendon in his left middle finger ended his 2022 campaign at the beginning of August. Now healthy and back in camp, the two-time All-Star also expressed a desire to sort out his long-term contractual status.
Speaking with Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Anderson noted he “kind of (wants) to know where (his) feet are going to be at the next whatever years it is.” The former batting champion said he’s “so comfortable” in Chicago and hopeful of getting another deal done as quickly as possibly. “I have a lot of things that are going on with kids and just family. Being comfortable is huge for me,” he told Merkin. “No, I’m not promoting ‘pay me.’ It’s just that’s what’s really going on. Everybody knows I want to be here. It’s no secret.”
Whether the organization has a similar level of urgency isn’t known. Chicago is not facing Anderson’s imminent departure. The sides have already worked out one long-term deal, guaranteeing him $25MM back in March 2017 at a time when he had less than one year of major league service. He’s under contract for $12.5MM for the upcoming season and has a $14MM club option (or a $1MM buyout) for the 2024 campaign. It’d take a disastrous season for the club to consider the buyout, as the net $13MM decision is well below Anderson’s present open market value.
With Anderson far more established and much closer to free agency than he was at the time of his first extension, any new deal would be at a completely different level financially. Anderson told Merkin he’s not interested in signing a below-market pact to ensure an agreement gets done. “No discounts. That’s not to … put anything out there that might seem negative or think I want the most money. I just want to be treated fair and want both ends to be happy like we did last time, whichever way it goes,” he said. “This has been home. This is all I know. I would be disappointed if that came to an end. But at the end of the day, I understand the process.”
If he were to simply play out his current deal (assuming the ’24 option is exercised), Anderson would first reach free agency in advance of his age-31 season. That’s two years older than Trevor Story and Javier Báez were when signing their free agent deals over the 2021-22 offseason and two years older than Dansby Swanson was this winter. Anderson would be the same age as Marcus Semien was two offseasons back.
Each of those players secured deals of six-plus years with guarantees in the $140MM to $180MM range. Anderson isn’t the same style of hitter as those other players, hitting for a little less power but more consistently running excellent batting averages than each. He’s been similarly effective overall though.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Anderson owns a .318/.347/.473 line in over 1600 plate appearances. His 123 wRC+ indicates that production checks in 23 percentage points above that of the league average batter. His 2022 campaign was a little down relative to his previous three seasons, with a .301/.339/.395 line before his season-ending hand injury. Nevertheless, the broader track record at the dish is in line with those of Semien, Story and Báez and a little above Swanson’s. Semien, Story and Báez each had a wRC+ between 113 and 119 over the four-year stretch preceding their free agent deals, while Swanson had a cumulative 104 mark but had posted his three best seasons leading up to free agency.
Anderson is perhaps not the same caliber of defender as Báez or Swanson, though he typically rates as a slightly above-average shortstop by public metrics like DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Story and Semien each came with questions about whether they were better suited for second base in the relatively near future. There aren’t expected to be those same concerns with Anderson.
Those comparisons lend a rough idea to the kind of range Anderson and his reps could target in free agency. There’s additional risk with Anderson considering he’s still two years from the open market, and the ChiSox may be reluctant to offer true market value prices to buy out his mid-30’s this far in advance. That said, any extension would require the largest investment in franchise history by a wide margin. The White Sox have never guaranteed above $75MM to an individual player — on their five-year deal with Andrew Benintendi this winter — and Anderson could reasonably look to more than double that amount.
If the Sox don’t get an extension done this spring, there’s at least some chance Anderson’s future with the organization could come into doubt by the middle of the season. Chicago showed no interest in trading him this offseason, an unsurprising stance for a club counting on a return to contention after an injury-marred year that culminated in an average showing. If they struggle early in the upcoming season and fall out of the playoff mix, the organization could have to consider larger-scale changes as the deadline nears. The Sox have arguably the game’s worst farm system and key players like Anderson, Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn are all within two years of free agency. Another non-competitive season could lead the front office to consider a reboot during the summer.
Chicago is certainly hoping it doesn’t come to that, either because a long-term deal for Anderson takes a trade firmly off the table or the club is in strong enough position to buy at the deadline. The Sox have a decent amount of payroll flexibility past the 2024 campaign, with only Benintendi ($16.5MM) and Luis Robert ($15MM) under guaranteed deals. Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Garrett Crochet will be deep into their arbitration seasons by then, however, and the organization will have to retain or replace Giolito, Yoán Moncada and Eloy Jiménez. There’s opportunity but a decent number of decisions facing general manager Rick Hahn and his staff as things play out.
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