Swimming

2022-2023 NCAA Men’s Power Rankings: Final Edition

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By James Sutherland on SwimSwam

As in previous years, SwimSwam’s Power Rankings are typically somewhere between the CSCAA-style dual meet rankings and a pure prediction of NCAA finish order. However, since this is our final power ranking before the championships, these reflect a definitive NCAA finish order. These rankings are by nature subjective, and a jumping-off point for discussion.  If you disagree with any team’s ranking, feel free to make your case in our comments section

Braden Keith, Spencer Penland, Robert Gibbs, Yanyan Li, Sophie Kaufman and Anya Pelshaw contributed to this report.

Previous Ranks:

It’s about that time. The Women’s NCAA Championships are in the books, and we’re just over 24 hours away from the start of the men’s meet in Minneapolis.

Our final edition of the men’s Power Rankings sees some changes across the board, most notably with Florida and Texas switching spots, as the Gators move into the #2 ranking and the Longhorns fall to #4. Although we expect Texas to outperform their pre-diving seed (seventh), Cal, Florida and Arizona State will be tough to beat.

Our writers have also bumped Indiana up into the top five over NC State, expecting their diving prowess to push them past the Wolfpack, while Auburn and Louisville both made big leaps up into a tie for 11th after strong conference championship performances.

Other than Texas, Ohio State, Georgia and Georgia Tech dropped multiple spots—but as evidenced by our ballots, there’s a lot of dissension in the 10-15 range and it will all come down to a) who hits their taper right, and b) who can step up and perform in the morning.

Honorable Mentions

  • HM: Princeton Tigers
  • HM: Wisconsin Badgers
  • HM: Kentucky Wildcats
  • HM: Utah Utes

#25: NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH – (PREVIOUS RANK: 25)

Chris Guiliano is a big breakout sprint star for this team. -YL

#24: ARIZONA WILDCATS + (PREVIOUS RANK: NR)

With Brooks Fail gone, the onus falls on relays and diver Bjorn Markentin to score. -JS

#23: GEORGIA TECH YELLOWJACKETS ↓2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 21)

Three swimmers seeded to score, but no margin for error in the prelims without any relays for points. -JS

#22: MIAMI (FL) HURRICANES ↑1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 23)

All about diving as always—Max Flory leads the charge and Mohamed Farouk comes over from Alabama with scoring potential. -JS

#21: COLUMBIA LIONS ↑1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 22)

Jonathan Suckow scored all of Columbia’s 30 points in 2022 and should rack up a similar amount of points this year. -SK

#20: LSU TIGERS ↓1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 19)

No relays and the sprints being even more crowded than ever hurts Brooks Curry‘s–and by extension LSU’s–ceiling -SK

#19: MISSOURI TIGERS ↑1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 20)

We had Missouri way under-rated all year. They’ve built around grad transfer Clement Secchi, who is a sleeper to upset some apple carts in Minneapolis. -BK

Jack Dahlgren and Clement Secchi are a solid duo for the Tigers. -SK

Jack Dahlgren, Clement Secchi, and Ben Patton have had really strong seasons so far. -YL

#18: MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 18)

This is where the relays really come into play. Minnesota only qualified one relay, which isn’t projected to score. The teams directly ahead of them (Michigan, Missouri, Alabama) are all projected to score in at least three. -SK

#17: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES ↓1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 16)

No Mitchell, no Callan, but Gal Cohen Groumi could very well end up in three ‘A’ finals. -JS

#16: ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE ↓1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 15)

Charlie Hawke has had a great season and is primed to do some damage in the 200 free. Victor Johansson added time and didn’t score last year (for USC), which is something to keep an eye on. -JS

#15 GEORGIA BULLDOGS ↓2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 13)

Georgia had a lot of breakout talent emerge early this season, like Ian Grum, Bradley Dunham, Wesley Ng, etc. It’s just a matter of whether they can hold on for NCAAs. -YL

#14: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES ↓3 (PREVIOUS RANK: 11)

Ruslan Gaziev missing Canadian trials indicates that’s going all-in on this NCAA meet. -YL

#13: TEXAS A&M AGGIES ↓1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 12)

The team is relying heavily on freshman Baylor Nelson, but he’s passed every test this year. Getting all five relays to score would be a big boost. -JS

#t-11: LOUISVILLE CARDINALS ↑6 (PREVIOUS RANK: 17)

After ranking them super low all year, swimmers like Denis Petrashov, Abdelrahman Elaraby, and Dalton Lowe really impressed me at ACCs. -YL

#t-11: AUBURN TIGERS ↑3 (PREVIOUS RANK: 14)

How much will Auburn have left in the tank after an incredible showing at SECs? -SK

#10: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS ↓1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 9)

Historically outperform their seed by a significant margin, but still, only seeded for 26 individual points is a shocking number. -JS

#9: VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES ↑1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 10)

The Ramadan/Coll Marti 1-2 punch has evolved into one of the most underrated in the country. -JS

#8: STANFORD CARDINAL – (PREVIOUS RANK: 8)

Looking forward to seeing how this team builds on what they did last season, especially in the relays. Leon MacAlister is flying under the radar. -JS

#7: TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 7)

Enough with the Tennesse taper jokes—their women held their seed times relatively well last week, and I think the men will be able to as well. Jordan Crooks and Gui Caribe have elevated the UT relays to another level and I see potential for improvement from many of their swimmers (ex. Jarel Dillard, who is seeded 38th in the 100 breast but A-finaled last year). -YL

#6: NC STATE WOLFPACK ↓1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 5)

I kept NC State in the top five unlike most of the others. I think Indiana’s diving won’t be able to make up for what the Pack will do in the water. -JS

#5: INDIANA HOOSIERS ↑1 (PREVIOUS RANK: 6)

I’ve had NC State ahead of Indiana all season. The Wolfpack are going to be battling for every point with Cal, ASU, Florida, and Texas–Indiana’s diving is more of a sure thing than the majority of races in the pool breaking NC State’s way. -SK

I second Sophie’s point—NC State’s competition is very crowded, and they are also missing some swimmers like Michael Cotter and Quintin McCarty who could bring in extra points. Alongside diving, Brendan Burns is also very much underseeded in the 100 fly for IU, and if they put him on the 200 medley relay (which they *cough* should have at Big Tens), they could move up big time there. -YL

#4: TEXAS LONGHORNS ↓2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 2)

Do I think Texas will do better than their 169.5 seed points? Yes. I think that it would be foolish to not expect that at this point. But with a so-so diving crew by their historical standards, it seems like a stretch for them to get to the 400+ points for a top 3 finish. -BK

Did I hesitate for a second when I moved Texas out of the top three? Yes, it felt almost uncomfortable in a way. But truthfully, ranking Texas any higher than I did (#4) would be solely based off reputation, and not what they’ve actually done in the pool this season. Cal, Arizona State, and Florida have simply been better this year, and there isn’t really any way around that. That being said, Texas will improve drastically over the psych sheet, but they’re so far back right now they could improve a ton from the seeding and still not even be in contention. -SP

#3: ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 3)

Arizona State struggled to maintain seed at the NCAA Championships last year. Yes, this team is different, has excitement, and momentum. They have depth, they have some big new second-semester additions. I don’t think they can compete with Cal for the title, but I’d be surprised at this point if they fell below 3rd. -BK

Arizona State has arrived. They snapped Cal’s five-year win streak at Pac-12s and they’re second on the scored psych sheet. Even though they don’t have diving help to rely on and even if they’re a tick below their Pac-12 performances, Arizona State looks primed for a top-three finish this year. -SP

Do not peak at Pac-12s. I repeat, do NOT peak at Pac-12s. (I know Bowman said that they were going all-in on NCAAs, but I’m still a little wary). -YL

I think there’s a very good chance ASU will perform well at NCAAs as a whole but still score fewer points than their psych sheet projection simply because this is a team that swims fast all year, compared to some others (such as Texas). -JS

#2: FLORIDA GATORS ↑2 (PREVIOUS RANK: 4)

Florida is seeded just seven points behind ASU, and I think they have more room to improve than the Sun Devils. If MacGuire McDuff nears his best time on that 400 free relay, I think they are the favorites to win that race—and that’s just one example. Something tells me that this is their year. -YL

#1: CAL GOLDEN BEARS – (PREVIOUS RANK: 1)

Yes, Arizona State won Pac-12s, but even so, Cal leads the standings when we score out the psych sheet. It’s hard for me to imagine Arizona State overperforming their seeds, while I think it’s likely Cal does, especially given their history of peaking at NCAAs. -SP

WRITER BALLOTS

James Braden Robert Spencer Yanyan Anya Sophie
#1 Cal Cal Cal Cal Cal Cal Cal
#2 Florida Florida Florida Arizona State Florida Arizona State Florida
#3 Arizona State Arizona State Arizona State Florida Arizona State Florida Arizona State
#4 Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas Texas
#5 NC State Indiana NC State Indiana Indiana Indiana Indiana
#6 Indiana NC State Indiana NC State NC State NC State NC State
#7 Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Stanford Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
#8 Stanford Virginia Tech Stanford Tennessee Stanford Stanford Stanford
#9 Virginia Tech Stanford Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech Virginia Tech
#10 Virginia Ohio State Virginia Virginia Auburn Auburn Virginia
#11 Auburn Virginia Louisville Louisville Virginia Virginia Texas A&M
#12 Texas A&M Louisville Auburn Texas A&M Louisville Texas A&M Louisville
#13 Ohio State Georgia Georgia Georgia Texas A&M Louisville Auburn
#14 Louisville Texas A&M Ohio State Auburn Ohio State Ohio State Georgia
#15 Georgia Auburn Texas A&M Ohio State Alabama Georgia Ohio State
#16 Alabama Michigan Michigan Michigan Georgia Alabama Michigan
#17 Michigan Missouri Missouri Alabama Missouri Michigan Missouri
#18 Missouri Alabama Alabama Minnesota Minnesota Minnesota Alabama
#19 LSU Minnesota Minnesota Wisconsin LSU LSU Minnesota
#20 Minnesota LSU LSU Missouri Michigan Missouri LSU
#21 Columbia Georgia Tech Purdue LSU Columbia Columbia Miami (FL)
#22 Georgia Tech Columbia Arizona Arizona Notre Dame Miami (FL) Columbia
#23 Notre Dame Miami (FL) Miami (FL) Georgia Tech Princeton Princeton Wisconsin
#24 Arizona Princeton Georgia Tech Kentucky Georgia Tech Wisconsin Arizona
#25 Miami (FL) Utah Columbia Notre Dame Miami (FL) Notre Dame Notre Dame

SwimSwam: 2022-2023 NCAA Men’s Power Rankings: Final Edition

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